2022 ADP Arbitrage: RB Production for Less
The idea of arbitrage was initially brought into my life by the sharp and mysterious Fantasy Douche of RotoViz, and then pounded into my head repeatedly by Matthew Freedman.
That’s not a complaint — I love arbitrage. Simply put, an arbitrage opportunity in fantasy football means we have two very similar fantasy assets, but one is cheaper, and sometimes significantly so.
Fortunately for you, the Player Comp Projections tool displays the most similar 2020 players for anybody you select, along with their rank among all similar players throughout the whole database. In other words — arbitrage.
With wide receiver already covered, it’s time to move on to running back. Note that since so much more of the position is situational, our graphs won’t always be as similar as they were in the WR piece.
*All ADP data from Underdog Fantasy
The Arbitrage Austin Ekeler (6.2) - Aaron Jones (17.7)
Ekeler is coming off of a monster season in which he caught 70 passes and scored 20 total TDs. This has him square in the middle of the first round of drafts, but the team has been vocal about giving him less work in 2022 — they also selected Isaiah Spiller in the NFL Draft.
This has me noticing a lot of similarities between Ekeler and Jones, who will likely be the preferred pass-catching back in Green Bay with A.J. Dillon doing some more of the dirty work inside. Jones has dominated in contests without Davante Adams.
In last year’s game without Adams, Jones saw a whopping 11 targets. With the only notable additions to the WR room post-Adams (and Marquez Valdes-Scantling) being Sammy Watkins and two rookies, we should expect increased reliance on Jones as a receiving option. There is a great chance he leads this team in receptions in 2022, and the offense should still be good enough with Aaron Rodgers at the helm to provide scoring opportunities.