2022 NFL Mock Draft 3.0
One week to go!
This is going to be the most detailed mock I put out the rest of the way. Next week’s mock — my final one posted the day before the draft — will likely contain only picks with no analysis. It is going to be gut-check time, and I’m not going to have the energy/time. Be sure to check out the analysis in Mock 2.0 — I will try not to repeat myself.
Before getting into the mock, I wanted to run through a few things I’m thinking as we get closer to the draft:
There is a lot of general uncertainty this year, and I expect quite a few trades. Here are the biggest trade-down hotpots in my opinion:
Giants at 5 or 7
Panthers at 6
Seahawks at 9
Vikings at 12
Houston at 13
And here’s a list of teams I could see moving up:
Eagles from 15 or 18 (EDGE/WR/CB)
Saints from 16 or 19 (WR/OL)
Steelers from 20 (QB)
Patriots from 21 (WR/CB)
Packers from 22 or 28 (WR)
Cowboys from 24 (WR/OL)
Chiefs from 29 or 30 (WR)
So there are plenty of dance partners to go around — and this doesn’t include the back-half of Round 1 where teams may be looking to come up and add a player of value with the fifth-year option. Detroit holds a lot of cards at 32 if they do not desire a QB.
As a reminder, The exercise of mocking (for me) is to first try to determine the 32 players I expect to go in Round 1, then find the appropriate teams. So let’s talk a little bit more about that.
Right now, there are 23 players I am comfortable saying are IN Round 1:
Quarterback (3): Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder
Wide Receiver (4): Jameson Williams, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave
Offensive Line (5): Evan Neal, Ickey Ekwonu, Charles Cross, Zion Johnson, Trevor Penning
Edge Rusher (4): Aidan Hutchinson, Travon Walker, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Jermaine Johnson
Defensive Line (1): Jordan Davis
Linebacker (1): Devin Lloyd
Cornerback (3): Sauce Gardner, Derek Stingley, Trent McDuffie
Safety (2): Kyle Hamilton, Daxton Hill
There are four additional players that I would say are VERY LIKELY to go in Round 1, but I have some slight trepidation over:
Treylon Burks (WR)
Kenyon Green (OL)
George Karlaftis (EDGE)
Tyler Smith (OL)
That brings us to 27 first-round players. Here is who could fill out the remaining five spots:
Quarterback: Matt Corral
Running Back: Breece Hall
Wide Receiver: Jahan Dotson, Skyy Moore, George Pickens, Christian Watson (anticipating 1-2 of these)
Offensive Line: Tyler Linderbaum, Bernhard Raimann
Edge Rusher: Boye Mafe, Arnold Ebiketie, David Ojabo
Defensive Line: Devonte Wyatt, Travis Jones, Logan Hall, Perrion Winfrey
Linebacker: Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker
Cornerback: Andrew Booth, Kyler Gordon, Kaiir Elam, Roger McCreary
Safety: Lewis Cine, Jalen Pitre
That’s 23 players for five spots, making this an incredibly open back-half of Round 1. It matches what Daniel Jeremiah said on the 4/20 episode of Move the Sticks, which can be paraphrased to say that players 25-50 could come off the board any which way.
Let’s get into the picks.
1 - Jaguars - Travon Walker, Edge, Georgia
I said I wouldn’t move off Aidan Hutchinson unless I heard otherwise, but the drumbeat has built enough around Walker going first that we are officially at this point. We know that Doug Pederson likely wants an offensive lineman given that he is an offensive coach. Hutchinson is widely considered the best player in the draft. But ultimately this pick is being made by Trent Baalke.
Baalke has a long history of drafting athletes — and sometimes over proven production:
2010 — Anthony Davis
2011 — Aldon Smith (over JJ Watt, Robert Quinn, Ryan Kerrigan)
2013 — Eric Reid
2016 — DeForest Buckner
When looking at the edge rushers Baalke drafted inside the top-100 with the Niners, it is clear that he prioritizes arm length:
Aldon Smith — 35 3/8
Tank Carradine — 34 3/4
Corey Lemonier — 34 1/2
DeForest Buckner — 34 3/8
It just so happens that Hutchinson and Walker couldn’t be further apart in this trait:
Hutchinson — 32 1/8
Walker — 35 1/2
I don’t want to undersell Hutchinson because the rest of his athletic testing is still quite good, but Walker’s is out of this world.
2 - Lions - Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Michigan
If Walker goes first, then the presumed favorite for the second pick is the local product at edge for the Lions. I don’t think this is a lock, however. Detroit has done enough work on Kayvon Thibodeaux — and this class lacks enough consensus — where the Oregon product could be their preference regardless of who goes first. 2021 first-round pick Penei Sewell could offer the Lions better insight into Thibodeaux than anyone else in football.
3 - Texans - Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
The buzz is growing strong for Houston to take a corner with their first pick. Dane Brugler and Lance Zierlein talked about it on the 4/20 episode of The Athletic Football Show. Rivers McCown mentioned it with Josh Norris on the Underdog Fantasy show. Heck, Lovie Smith has talked about how the CB play has to be better.
Sauce also may think that he’s the pick.
Offensive line is a popular choice for Houston, but the Texans don’t really need a tackle and this class is deep at interior line positions.
4 - Jets - Drake London, WR, USC
The Jets have been an interesting team to sus out over the last couple of months, but we do have one strong trend in the Joe Douglas history — he loves captains. 16 of his 17 draft picks with the Jets were captains with their college team (2021 fifth-round DB Jamien Sherwood was the lone exception). Let’s take a look at the potentially available players through this lens.
Captains: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Jermaine Johnson, Drake London, Evan Neal
Non-captains: Ickey Ekwonu, Jameson Williams, Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner
Friend of the mock and long-suffering NC State fan Will Brinson noted to me that Ekwonu likely would have been a captain had they not returned so many players with the extra COVID year, so maybe this concept becomes a little more complicated to look at for 2022 (and Ekwonu has been linked to the team already).
But what I find interesting about this is that the Jets have two potential options at edge rusher, and only one at WR, a clear need the team would like to address. There is a bit of an order of operations thing here where they could take edge at four and WR at 10, but for this mock I’m putting London first because he could be their top WR. It is certainly possible that the Jets feel good enough about London making it to 10 that they take their preferred edge — presumably Thibodeaux — at this spot.
I would also note that with Deebo Samuel demanding a trade, the Jets could fill their WR need prior to or during the draft without taking one in the first round.
5 - Giants - Derek Stingley, CB, LSU
The Giants would like to trade one of their picks, but it may be difficult to add 2023 draft capital for a pick in a draft class that lacks high-end talent. James Bradberry is likely to be traded, making corner a huge need for this team. Stingley is healthy and expected to go in the top-10. In fact, Jeremiah noted he is more likely to go in the top seven than make it to where the Vikings pick at 12. This is a prospect who was once projected as a potential first overall selection.
Tackle is the other position New York is likely to address if they keep both selections, but all of the top players are still on the board, while Stingley is the best available corner. With Carolina being a popular trade spot, there is more risk in letting Stingley go than whoever their tackle of choice may be.
6 - Panthers - Ickey Ekwonu, OT, NC State
I feel pretty good at this point that Carolina isn’t going to take a QB — at least not with this pick. There is some potential for a trade-back where they could take a signal-caller later on, but that wouldn’t be in the best interest of this franchise. Securing offensive line help and adding (another) veteran passer would be the best path to Matt Rhule retaining his job, and it is worth noting that he has final say over roster decisions.
Tony Pauline believes the top tackles on Carolina’s board are Ekwonu and Charles Cross, but with the former on the board they do not need to reach here.
7 - Giants - Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
The Giants are another team that has been linked heavily to Cross, but that made a lot more sense when it was expected both Neal and Ekwonu would be off the board before the Giants picked. Now that the tackles are sliding, they can simply take the best one — and other player they like — in Neal.
Jordan Raanan asked 13 people around the league who the top offensive lineman was in this draft, and every first-place vote went to Ekwonu or Neal. Bob McGinn polled 17 league personnel people for his draft series, and Cross received just two first-place votes. While Cross has gained some steam in media circles, it is clear that NFL people still prefer Neal. Giants head coach Brian Daboll also worked under Alabama head coach Nick Saban.
8 - Falcons - Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
This one continues to be straightforward for me. Atlanta has a massive need at WR, and Wilson is the top prospect in the draft at that position for a lot of scouts.
It is possible that the team prefers London — and could be the pick here if available — or that him being off the board would push the Falcons to a different position. This is probably the highest I could see Kyle Hamilton coming off the board, as this front office has seemed to ignore positional value. Edge rusher is also in play.
9 - Seahawks - Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Seattle is another potential trade-back spot, but they also have displayed a habit to go off the board and/or select prospects from smaller schools. The Penning selection would fit both, and the Seahawks currently have no true starters at tackle.
Penning is a physical mauler who embodies how Pete Carroll wants to play. He should be available here, or a few spots further down the board if the team moves back.
10 - Jets - Kayvon Thibodeaux, Edge, Oregon
Thibodeaux’s draft stock continues to be a mystery, and he has an absolutely massive range in my opinion. It is possible he wouldn’t last as far as 10, and that the Jets prefer to take him at four after having a great meeting with him.
Jermaine Johnson is another captain that the league seems to like a good bit, and would be in play for the Jets at either four or 10. New York’s coaching staff also got to see Johnson at the Senior Bowl.
11 - Commanders - Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
I expect WRs to fly off the board next week as it continues to be a premium position based on league spending.
If that ends up not being the case, Washington could end up with Garrett Wilson, but the league likes Olave a ton based on McGinn’s draft preview series.
In addition to what was mentioned in the last mock, Olave played with Terry McLaurin at Ohio State — who also played with Curtis Samuel at Ohio State. McLaurin is due for a new contract. You can see where I’m going with this.
12 - Vikings - Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
Tony Pauline has reported that the Vikings would like to trade back — not surprising given GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s analytics background — and that they are high on McDuffie.
Minnesota has a massive need at corner. This should be a popular spot to trade into for a QB or anyone teams perceive as falling down the board.
13 - Texans - Jermaine Johnson, Edge, Florida State
I think Houston is firmly in the market for a WR, but have them taking the sliding Johnson in this mock iteration. This is another spot that could be traded out of, and they could even swap this pick to the Niners for Samuel. The Texans would likely feel good about adding two blue-chip defensive players to start their draft.
14 - Ravens - Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia
Jeremiah has dominated predicting Baltimore’s drafts, and has been predicting the team will select Davis if he is available.
Penning would be another candidate if he were available at this juncture.
15 - Eagles - Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
The Athletic’s Bo Wulf had Hamilton being Philly’s first selection in his “best-case scenario” mock draft, and that is in fact the case here. The Eagles have needs in the secondary, and would be a potential match for Trent McDuffie or Daxton Hill. The Eagles are another team that could be interested in Jordan Davis.
16 - Saints - Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
The Saints trading up for Williams continues to be one of my bold draft calls. I do not think Williams makes it past the Chargers in any scenario, and is probably a coin flip at worst to land inside of the top-10.
17 - Chargers - Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
Offensive line, receiver, and the back-half of the defense are all positions that could be filled at this selection. The Chargers have plenty of options, including moving up or down the board. In this spot, they would presumably not pass on Cross to help protect Justin Herbert.
18 - Eagles - Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
No real updates here from the last mock, though I will note that Burks may have a wider range than we think.
19 - Saints - Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
Ditto for Smith. The Saints have been rumored to have interest in Charles Cross as well on the offensive line, so it is possible a trade-up is for him instead of Williams.
20 - Steelers - Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
I continue to feel confident that the Steelers will leave the first round with a QB, and that this is Malik Willis’ floor. If another team is able to get ahead of Pittsburgh for Willis, my presumption would be that they take Desmond Ridder.
21 - Patriots - Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College
The Patriots have plenty of options, including at linebacker and in the secondary, as well as receiver. However, after dealing Shaq Mason for peanuts, New England has a massive need at guard. There aren’t any dynamic receivers here to assist Mac Jones, so they instead support him with better protection.
22 - Packers - Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
I had Quay Walker here in my last mock, but looking more into Brian Gutekunst’s picks since 2018, age appears to be a lot less valuable than traits. Lloyd is not only a phenomenal athlete, but has experience on the edge in addition to the interior. That versatility — along with a profile the league seems to like a lot more than media — makes him the pick here.
23 - Cardinals - George Karlaftis, Edge, Purdue
No change here just yet. It is notable that Peter Schrager has gone offense for Arizona in each of his first two mocks, but he has done the same thing each of the past two years before ultimately selecting (the correct) defensive players in his final mocks. I am holding until then.
24 - Cowboys - Kenyon Green, OG, Texas A&M
Green is another player Dallas has had in for a “30 visit”, and has experience at both guard and tackle. Unless they move up to add at WR, the Cowboys need to make additions upfront.
25 - Bills - Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
Buffalo has been linked to Breece Hall, but also has needs on defense. Hill would be an amazing addition for the Bills. He can immediately play the nickel, and current free safety Jordan Poyer is entering the final year of his deal. This is a fit that makes sense in both the short and long terms.
26 - Titans - Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
I still believe that the connection here between Ridder and the Titans is strong as the team enters the waning phases of Ryan Tannehill’s career.
27 - Bucs - Travis Jones, DL, UConn
Tampa is likely to address one of the lines in the first round. If one of Green or Johnson were able to slip this far, I think the Bucs would be likely to select them. That does not happen here, so Tampa instead decides to fortify its interior.
28 - Packers - George Pickens, WR, Georgia
In my last mock I noted how Green Bay loves selecting elite athletes, and Pickens would fit that bill.
There has been some talk that he is more a candidate to slip into the 40’s or 50’s — meaning he could conceivably be available for them in Round 2 — but for now I am putting him here.
29 - Chiefs - Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan
30 - Chiefs - Boye Mafe, Edge, Minnesota
No change to the Chiefs picks, who have clear needs at WR and on defense. Corner is likely in play for them at this range as well.
31 - Bengals - Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
The Cincy beats for The Athletic believe the team will address the secondary in Round 1, and specifically mentioned Booth as a player of interest due to his versatility and potential pipeline with Clemson. Booth is a talented player that would likely have already been off the board if not for an injury history that could push him out of the first round completely. Kyler Gordon would be another name to watch here.
32 - Lions - Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
Those close to the Lions seem to think their favorite passers right now are Malik Willis and Sam Howell, but I ultimately do not see Pickett making it out of the first round. If he were still on the board at 32, Detroit would likely either trade the pick to a Pickett team, or simply take him themselves.
There is a bit of QB roulette on Day 1 where I could see Pickett to Tennessee, Ridder to Pittsburgh, and Willis to Detroit if they are able to move up using their second-round picks. The Lions need to start the clock on their QB of the future very soon.