2023 NBA Mock Draft 1.0

A look at the lottery with two weeks to go

We have two weeks left before the NBA Draft kicks off, and even though the NBA finals are in full swing, I’m more looking forward to what will go down at the Barclays on June 22nd.

With so much still in the air, this mock will only take a look at the lottery.

1 - Spurs - Victor Wembanyama, Metropolitans 92

Wemby is the best NBA prospect since LeBron James and is a -2000 favorite to go first. I don’t think this requires much discussion.

2 - Hornets - Brandon Miller, Alabama

It is widely considered to be a three-player class, with Charlotte having to make the choice between Miller and Scoot Henderson. Henderson entered the year in a clear tier of his own after Wembanyama, but struggled with his shot down the stretch of the season for the Ignite before being shut down.

The majority of league intel has pointed towards the Hornets pivoting to Miller, who is a 6’9” wing and better positional fit alongside LaMelo Ball. Kevin O’Connor’s latest mock is just one example.

It is worth noting that neither Miller or Scoot have worked out yet for the Hornets, and that has typically been a major part of the process for Mitch Kupchack. If Scoot impresses in that environment, the narrative around this pick will change fairly quickly.

3 - Blazers - Scoot Henderson, Ignite

While they are at the mercy of Charlotte’s decision, it certainly seems like Portland could already be setting the stage for a Henderson arrival.

Some will question fit here with Damian Lillard, but this is a clear tier break where you would just take the talent and make it work. This new front office took someone who was clearly an upside swing last year in Shaedon Sharpe, and has not seemed interested in making draft picks based on a win-now objective.

It is possible this pick would be moved, but I almost think it’s more likely the team just trades Lillard and starts over if Scoot his here. No matter who ends up being on the clock, it is difficult to imagine Henderson making it past three.

4 - Rockets - Cam Whitmore, Villanova

A lot of what happens here will come down to where James Harden decides he wants to play next season. Harden is expected to decline his $35.6M player option for 23-24 with the Sixers, and seek a new contract in free-agency — presumably a max deal.

However, due to the NBA’s Over-38 rule, the Sixers will be unable to offer Harden a five-year max as is common with Bird Right players. On a four-year max, Philly can only offer him $210.1M versus the $201.7M he can get from any other team. That makes it far more likely he could return to his favorite strip clubs in Houston this fall.

While it may seem like an odd timeline fit, the Rockets have incentive to win games in 23-24 given that their 2024 1st is only top-four protected and next year’s class is not expected to be very good. Tilman Fertitta also doesn’t strike me as a bastion of patience.

Should Houston wrangle Harden back, it makes sense to use this pick on a player who can complement who is already in tow. Whitmore is a talented scorer who can play off the ball, and seems to be separating from the rest of the next tier of players.

If Harden goes back to Philly, a lead ball-handler like Amen Thompson would make a lot more sense. But it is worth noting that the Rockets — who have over $60M in cap space — may just pivot to Fred VanVleet.

5 - Pistons - Jarace Walker, Houston

Picks 3-5 all seem to be on the trade block in one way or another, and it is important to be mindful of that as we get closer to draft day. James Edwards of the Athletic laid out a good argument for Whitmore as the pick here if he is available — which appears to be a growing consensus in draft circles.

If Whitmore is off the board, Edwards leans towards Walker. I have some concerns here on fit given that I’m not positive he’s an NBA 3 and the team is already stocked with players at the 4 and 5, but agree with Edwards that Amen Thompson doesn’t make much sense with Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey already on the roster. Edwards has also had his finger on the pulse for Detroit during Troy Weaver’s tenure, so I tend to defer to his judgement.

6 - Magic - Anthony Black, Arkansas

Orlando has two centerpieces in Franz Wagner and 2023 rookie of the year Paolo Banchero, and their two picks this summer should look to complement them.

This is another team that doesn’t seem to be a fit for Amen Thompson, given there would be a lot of redundancy with Markelle Fultz. Fultz has only $2M guaranteed before June 30th, so they could waive him and just take Thompson as a long-term upgrade with more team control, but Fultz has played well for the Magic. Thompson also is not a particularly good shooter, something Orlando needs desperately.

Jeff Weltman and John Hammond have loved taking longer players in their respective tenures. The Thompson twins certainly fit that, but so does Black, a 6’6” player with a 6’8” wingspan, guard skills, and a shot that has impressed in workouts. The fact that he is further along as a shooter than Amen Thompson could have Black as an intriguing connector for Orlando to look at.

I also think Taylor Hendricks — 6’8” with a 7’1” wingspan — makes sense as a versatile three-and-d big.

7 - Pacers - Taylor Hendricks, Central Florida

Indiana has done a great job building out this roster while still competing every night. They are not in need of any additional ball-handling, and should be looking for frontcourt fits. Whitmore, Walker, and Hendricks seem to match best in terms of the top names, with only one making it to the Pacers in this exercise.

It is worth noting that Indiana has worked out all of their draft picks under Rick Carlisle, and all three of the aforementioned players have already been in for the Pacers.

8 - Wizards - Amen Thompson, Overtime Elite

The slide stops here for Thompson, and it could be argued a team would move up for him if he isn’t picked at four.

New team president Michael Winger, who has spent time with the Thunder and Clippers, hired Will Dawkins to be the GM. The two were together in OKC from 2010 to 2017. Length, athleticism, and ball-handling have all been traits prioritized for the Thunder.

With a roster that is going to be completely remade from the ground up, it is a perfect landing spot for someone like Thompson.

9 - Jazz - Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana

ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo — two of the best draft prognosticators in the space, recently put JHS in this spot:

Hood-Schifino is one of the big winners of the measurements and pro day portions of the draft process, as he clearly possesses all-star-level physical tools with his tremendous size, frame and length for a point guard. Players with his caliber of upside tend to rise as we get closer to the draft. Many executives pivot into home run-swing mode at this stage of the lottery, especially teams like the Jazz who have three picks at their disposal and some clear holes to plug in the backcourt. -- Givony

Hood-Schifino measured 6’4” with a 6’10” wingspan to speak to the frame Givony references. I am buying him as a riser and lottery pick at this juncture.

10 - Mavericks - Dereck Lively, Duke

Assuming Dallas manages to retain Kyrie Irving, their biggest need is in the frontcourt, where they have struggled mightily to get consistent production on both ends. Lively offers a defensive presence with a 12.7 block percentage at Duke, and has demonstrated his three-point shooting both in high school and the pre-draft workouts.

Hendricks would be another option if he fell this far, as is Cason Wallace if Dallas decides they want a defensive presence next to Irving (or if Irving leaves).

11 - Magic - Keyonte George, Baylor

George probably doesn’t have the same immediate spot-up impact as Gradey Dick, but he shot close to 80% at the free throw line in college and has more overall scoring upside. George had one of the best pro days on the circuit, and projects to go somewhere in the top-15.

In addition to Dick, Hawkins is another sharpshooter that could have the Magic’s eye here.

12 - Thunder - Bilal Coulibaly, Metropolitans 92

Oklahoma City is a difficult team to pin down every year, and the fact that Coulibaly has been rumored as an option there makes it feel even less likely. With that said, it fits the MO of this front office.

The Thunder have an incredibly young roster and do not need someone who can play right away. The upside is high for Coulibaly, who is expected to measure in the 6’7” range with a wingspan over seven feet. He has shot 34% from three and 71% from the line in his international career, though he has not been a high usage rate player.

The entire board is open here. They could add shooting in Dick or Hawkins, and Hendricks or Lively should also be options if they make it to 12. My hunch is the Thunder will be somewhat aggressive trying to move up for someone they value in a higher tier versus settling.

13 - Raptors - Cason Wallace, Kentucky

With VanVleet a free agent, Toronto has a massive hole at guard. With Scottie Barnes in tow, the long-term point for the Raptors doesn’t need to be an alpha ball-handler, which works perfectly for Wallace. He is an elite perimeter defender, and has upside both as a shooter and scorer.

Wallace recently cancelled a workout with the Hawks — who pick 15th. It is widely expected he will come off the board in the lottery.

14 - Pelicans - Ausar Thompson, Overtime Elite

New Orleans selected a similar player last year in Dyson Daniels, but they could keep shooting for upside at guard with Jose Alvarado as their lead minute-getter at the point.

The Thompson twins may ultimately not wind up this far apart. Both are 6’6” with 7’0” wingspans, and while Amen is considered the better athlete, Ausar has back-to-back OTE MVPs. Rafael Barlowe had this quote from a scout regarding the Thompsons:

Amen is not a point guard; that's a misevaluation. Ausar is more of a point, but Amen was featured more. If you go back and look at the film, the twins looked their best when Ausar was the primary (ball-handler), and Amen was playing off him, cutting and diving to the rim. Ausar is the better shooter, defender, and decision-maker. Amen is really good too, and is the more gifted athlete, but not by much. 

The main difficulty with both twins is that they were abysmal shooters in OTE. With that being such an emphasized skill — and many lottery teams already posessing multiple lead ball-handlers — they are incredibly difficult to pin down to particular teams.

Best of the Rest

Gradey Dick, Kansas

Jordan Hawkins, UConn

Nick Smith, Arkansas

Kobe Bufkin, Michigan

Leonard Miller, Ignite