2023 NFL Mock Draft 2.0
One month left!
With a little more time passed, and a ton of moves completed in free agency, it’s time to take another swing on a mock. For teams where picks did not change, some or all of the writeup may have been preserved.
1 - Panthers - C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State
After trading for the first pick, Carolina has done a nice job of making the rounds at all of the QB pro days. One moment in particular stood out, where QB coach Josh McCown seemed to challenge Stroud to a game of HORSE “maybe when you live in Charlotte”.
We already can suspect McCown is a fan of Stroud based on his work with Underdog prior to becoming Carolina’s QB coach.
The most valuable nugget we may have gotten on where Carolina is leaning came from Frank Reich at the owners meeting.
If it is indeed Reich and Fitterer making this choice, I think that greatly increases the chances Stroud is the pick.
2 - Texans - Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
This is the name Houston has been seemingly connected to the most, including a mention from Lance Zierlein who I tend to trust with all things Houston. The drumbeat here has been pretty strong, and I continue to expect Young to be the pick. The potential curveball is Anthony Richardson, but presumably Nick Caserio has a relationship with Nick Saban after working with Bill Belichick for so many years, and I would expect the DeMeco Ryans/Saban/Alabama connection to be strong.
3 - Cardinals - Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Gonzalez is the pick here, but I don’t really expect it to occur at 3. Monti Ossenfort is a Patriots disciple, and I can’t imagine he will want to pass on an opportunity to trade back. How far back is the ultimate question. If they truly coven Will Anderson, then a swap with the Colts would make the most sense.
With that said, there is reason to believe Anderson is not a scheme fit with Jon Gannon’s defense. Benjamin Allbright also connected Arizona to Gonzalez or Tyree Wilson.
Ossenfort took corners with premium draft capital in both of his drafts with the Titans, and Gonzalez is perhaps a more explosive version of James Bradberry, who was signed while Gannon was in Philly.
I’m also not completely ruling this out as being Arizona’s pick if they keep it. While Will Anderson seems like a blue chip person, he is not a special enough pass rusher to be in a tier of his own.
4 - Colts - Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The Colts have been victimized a little by their draft position. They tried to trade up to the first pick, but Carolina offered more (and had to by virtue of their later draft position). Chris Ballard is not the type of GM to pay an extra premium to move up. I suspect negotiations around the third pick could go similarly, especially if Arizona is not married to Anderson in a trade back.
So would they still take a QB if three are already off the board? There seems to have been a coordinated media effort to put out that they may not do that. Additionally, they have only sent area scouts to the QB pro days. I can think of a couple of different reasons why that would be the case:
They want to de-entice teams from moving in front of them.
They are looking to soften the blow when they ultimately do not take a QB (versus it being a surprise = disappointment).
They are considering not taking a QB and want to test how that would be received.
As of now, I just can’t see this team starting the season with Gardner Minshew as the starter, and no long-term plan at the position. They could draft a QB at 4, move up to get one at 3, or even get involved in the Lamar Jackson sweepstakes (in which case Baltimore kind of finds themselves in the same spot).
There has been a lot of media buzz on Levis falling (coincidentally at the same time), but currently I still expect him to be a top-10 pick. He may even be Indy’s choice straight-up against Richardson.
5 - Seahawks - Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama
On the opposite end of the Colts spectrum is Seattle, who has made sure everyone is aware that they are interested in the QBs.
I’m torn on this one, as the Geno Smith contract does lend itself to the selection of a rookie this season. But Pete Carroll is the ultimate liar when it comes to what he presents to media. My instinct is they are DYING to land Anderson, and maybe take Hendon Hooker later on.
6 - Lions - Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
In the sweepstakes for the third pick, I would expect Indy and the Raiders to be competing with…Detroit. The Lions filled a bunch of needs in free-agency, signing Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Mosely at corner, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson at safety, and David Montgomery at RB. They could use an interior defensive lineman still, but can address that later on (it also makes them a contender for Jalen Carter).
But while the Lions seem to have a playoff roster in 2023, they lack a long-term plan at QB. Certainly, it is possible that they like Jared Goff enough to extend him past 2024 — when his contract expires — but my guess is they would like to get someone in the building with enough upside to take them to another level. It also could help them keep OC Ben Johnson in the building if there is a fun project at QB and the chance at a title.
It is also worth noting that the Lions have connections to Arizona through Dave Sears, who was their director of college scouting before joining Ossenfort and the Cardinals. They also have the draft capital to move up and still be able to improve their roster.
7 - Raiders - Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
If Vegas is unable (or uninterested) to move up for a QB, they have a bit of a glaring need at corner. This also happens to be a class with two top-10 worthy talents. Witherspoon is also a scheme fit:
8 - Falcons - Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
While many believe the Falcons will Capitulate for Caleb™️, they seem to not have gotten the memo. Atlanta has spent a ton of cash this off-season, and most recently brought in veteran Calais Campbell to shore up their defensive interior. I think they are looking to make a run at the division.
Edge defender is their biggest need currently on defense, though they could go a couple of different directions with this pick. My belief is this is where Bijan Robinson’s range begins.
9 - Bears - Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
Carter has been a relative question mark since his arrest, but the majority opinion is that he will still go inside of the top-10. From Jordan Reid:
Still, speaking to scouts after Georgia's recent pro day -- where Carter struggled -- each mentioned they expect Carter to be a top-10 pick.
There also appears to be at least some interest from the Bears’ side of things.
Carter, Wilson, a tackle, or a trade back seem like the most likely outcomes here.
10 - Eagles - Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
We know Howie loves premium positions, especially in the trenches. They have starters up front on both sides of the ball, but lack depth (especially young depth). Should they go to the defensive side, they have a couple of options that should fit what they do:
I like this better than selecting someone like Peter Skoronski — ostensibly a guard — at 10.
The Eagles don’t own any picks in Rounds 4/5/6, so they will probably look to trade back somewhere and re-fortify their Day 3 selections. This range is so open that they could do that and still land any of their targeted players.
11 - Titans - Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
Tennessee has a major deficiency up front, and should look to replenish the trenches while going through what appears to be a rebuilding year. Mike Vrabel has the pipeline with Ohio State as well.
They also may be in the QB market.
The Titans have had a presence at the QB pro days, and also still have some ties to Ossenfort if they wanted to go to 3. A small swap with the Bears or Eagles is possible if Levis or another QB falls to them.
12 - Texans - Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
This may seem like an odd selection given that Houston already has Dameon Pierce, but I think there is some credibility to the idea that the Texans could be in on Bijan.
Nick Caserio was part of a Patriot front office that selected Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley on Day 2 of the same draft. They also took Sony Michel with stable RBs in tow (including 4th-rounder James White), and notably over QB Lamar Jackson. Caserio selected guard Kenyon Green with the 15th pick last year. Positional value does not seem to be something that would dissuade him.
With the Texans likely starting a rookie QB, they may view an investment in Robinson as “protection” for him — especially with a defensive-minded head coach in DeMeco Ryans. There is also something to be said for the fan approval rating likely to come from keeping a local star in-state.
13 - Jets - Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
After an up-and-down start to his career, Mekhi Becton is looking #good.
If the Jets can trust Becton to man the left side, then Duane Brown can handle the right — negating a need to force an OT at this pick. As Daniel Jeremiah notes, Carl Lawson is a potential cut. New York would save over $15M on the cap, which could be critical in their pursuit of Aaron Rodgers.
14 - Patriots - Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
New England is another team that has at least applied a band-aid to a bunch of needs in free-agency, and could also be looking to trade back from this spot. While Skoronski has short arms that could prevent him from playing tackle at the next level, Belichick let the short-armed Matt Light man the left side for Tom Brady for over a decade.
Corner and receiver also stand out as potential fits with this selection.
15 - Packers - Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
Last year, we noted the trends of Green Bay’s front office en route to a Quay Walker selection.
The Packers have a deficit at pass-catcher, and likely prefer the more athletic Washington versus presumed TE1 Michael Mayer.
Especially with the Jordan Love era set to begin, Washington would be an asset in a presumed run-heavy attack.
16 - Commanders - Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Washington appears ready to hand the keys to Sam Howell (for now), which leaves corner and tackle as their biggest needs. Jones could go as high as 9 to the Bears. He has drawn comparisons to 2022 top-10 pick Ickey Ekwonu.
17 - Steelers - Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
His father played and coached with the Steelers for over 20 years. Pittsburgh has a need at corner. Maybe I’m making this too simple. This is believed to be Porter’s floor.
18 - Lions - Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern
As noted previously, Detroit still has a need on the defensive interior. While many are drawing helmet-based conclusions on the undersized Calijah Kancey and GM Brad Holmes, I think there is a better undersized 3-tech in this class.
Most importantly, Adebawore has arms that are over 3 inches longer than Kancey’s. I’m not really sure the latter makes it into Day 1. Adebawore has crushed the entire process, and has the versatility to mix in on the edge as well.
Todd McShay noted his range was from 20-31 on First Draft. He could be Detroit target at 18, or on a slight trade down if they want to recover some capital from a potential deal up for Richardson.
19 - Bucs - Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
Tampa recently cut starting tackle Donovan Smith, and are still $50M over the cap. This could be a punt season for them where the hope is to acquire one of the top picks in the 2024 draft (and Caleb Williams/Drake Maye). In a mini teardown, it would make sense to find a young player at a premium position. Murphy doesn’t turn 22 until January 2024.
20 - Seahawks - O’Cyrus Torrence, OL, Florida
Seattle has a need on the interior of their offensive line, and Torrence seems likely to be a late Day 1 pick. Receiver and edge rusher were also in consideration.
21 - Chargers - Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
There has been a lot of discussion around the Charger offense this off-season. The solution to their problems is simple: this team needs speed. Flowers has 4.42 wheels and can play outside.
22 - Ravens - Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The above tweet can also apply to Baltimore, who needs a WR, but utilizes their TEs in the slot — Mark Andrew and Isaiah Likely combined for 512 slot snaps in 2022. They need someone to play outside with Rashod Bateman, and Johnston is a true outside fixture.
23 - Vikings - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
After letting go of Adam Thielen, Minnesota could use another weapon. While JSN was primarily a slot player at Ohio State, there is some belief that he was mostly forced there by Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. He has had enough productivity on his outside snaps — and weighs an appropriate 196 pounds — that Minnesota could get fairly creative with how they align him and Justin Jefferson.
24 - Jaguars - Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Jaawan Taylor went to the Chiefs, and it appears that Doug Pederson believes Walker Little is capable of playing guard:
Little won't be the Jaguars' only option, though. Pederson raved about Little's versatility during this year's NFL Scouting Combine, noting he thinks he could play either tackle spot and potentially even inside at guard. Thanks to this versatility, the Jaguars could look to this year's draft to find a future replacement for Taylor.
Jacksonville absolutely must prioritize protecting Trevor Lawrence, and Wright is a plug-and-play RT prospect.
25 - Giants - Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Giants added Darren Waller and every slot receiver under the sun so far in free-agency, meaning they do not have to address the position in Round 1. Instead, they turn their eyes to corner, where Banks is the consensus best available prospect. He played man coverage 32% of the time last year at Maryland, something he would definitely be asked to do under Wink Martindale.
26 - Cowboys - Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
After trading for Brandin Cooks, Dallas has made it clear they want to surround Dak Prescott with better weapons. With a hole at TE, they could look to add Kincaid, perhaps the best pure pass-catcher in this class at the position.
27 - Bills - Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
The Move the Sticks crew laid out some great dot-connecting on Jack Campbell and the Bills connecting through Luke Kuechly.
Linebacker does fill a need. Other considerations would be given to offensive line and hte defensive backfield.
28 - Bengals - Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Cincy added Irv Smith on a cheap, one-year deal, but that is far from having long-term assurance at the position. Mayer could step right in and be a better in-line blocker than Smith, and the pair could play together to add yet another dimension to the Bengal offense.
29 - Saints - Mazi Smith, DL, Michigan
The Saints need to strengthen their defensive line, and Smith absolutely seems worthy of a first-round pick. He has not tested during the pre-draft process, but was number one on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List.
But let’s start with this: Smith does 22 reps on the bench press, but that’s with 325 (not 225). He close-grip benched 550 pounds. He vertical-jumps 33 inches. He broad-jumped 9-4 1/2. Smith, who had 37 tackles last season, has clocked a 4.41 shuttle time, which would’ve tied the best by any defensive tackle at this year’s NFL Scouting Combine, and it would’ve been better than any defensive tackle weighing 310 pounds or more in the past decade. His 6.95 3-cone time would’ve been by far the fastest among defensive tackles in Indianapolis. The fastest was 7.33. Smith’s 60-yard shuttle time is 11.90.
30 - Eagles - Brian Branch, S, Alabama
The Eagles could continue fortifying the trenches here, but Branch would be a great get for an aging secondary that was on the losing end of the Gardner-Johnson transaction. Branch is an intelligent defensive back who could compete at both the safety and nickel spots for the Eagles.
31 - Chiefs - Jordan Addison, WR, USC
While he disappointed with his weight and testing at the Combine, I would still expect Addison to be a Day 1 pick. The Chiefs lost JuJu Smith-Schuster in free-agency, and do not have a ton of depth behind oft-injured Kadarius Toney, second-year WR Skyy Moore, and 2022 free-agent acquisition Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Addison brings Biletnikoff-winning talent to the mix, and fits well in what has become a more YAC-centric offense in this phase of Patrick Mahomes’ career.
Edge defender was also given consideration here, with both Keion White and Will McDonald competing for Day 1 draft capital.