2023 NFL Mock Draft 3.0
Penultimate mock draft for 2023
We have just one week left before the NFL Draft. The goal of this mock is to give you as much information as possible to get an idea of how the first round may unfold. Earlier this week, I took a look at the candidates to hear their names called on Day 1.
My first objective was to trim that list to the 31 players I ultimately believe will be drafted. The second was to find them the appropriate team. I am not projecting trades, but some may be necessary for this to make sense.
One additional note — this is the last fully-detailed mock I will be posting. My final mock next Wednesday will be picks only with no explanations.
1 - Panthers - Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
The capitulation here is obvious, but also warranted. Earlier this week, Young cancelled all of his remaining visits.
(Bear with me on the screenshots as the war between Substack and Twitter continues to hurt the content creator. They should be linked still.)
This doesn’t truly guarantee that Young will be the pick, despite the framing of the report. However, it seems that if he isn’t, it is Anthony Richardson that would get the nod. I did find it notable that Panther GM Scott Fitterer is already thinking about Young’s nutrition.
The note that Fitterer was present in Seattle with Wilson is meaningful. I believe that Young is the favorite, but am definitely leaving this open to some 11th-hour David Tepper shenanigans.
2 - Texans - Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
The draft gets wild pretty quickly. After at least a month of speculation that this would essentially be a two-player draft at the top, that appears to — perhaps — no longer be the case. For starters, Stroud has been getting abused in the media.
So if Stroud isn’t going second, who is? There is some argument to be made for one of the top edge rushers in this class — Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson. However, I believe they will ultimately still select a QB.
There have been rumors circulating that Nick Caserio may be on the hot seat in Houston. And they make sense. He did not appear to be the decision-maker in the DeMeco Ryans hire, and the team has been terrible. Perhaps the best way Caserio can retain his job is by drafting a young QB. That likely buys him at least two years as the team looks to build around whoever that ends up being.
And IF the Texans like one of these QBs enough to draft, recent history tells us this will happen at two, not 12.
Giants 2019: Picks 6 and 17 — Select Daniel Jones 6
Browns 2018: Picks 1 and 4 — Select Baker Mayfield 4
Bills 2018: Picks 12 and 22 — Trade up from 12 to 7 for Josh Allen
Houston simply cannot afford to wait around for a QB. Especially since a division rival in the Colts likely also covets Levis (more on that later). The Titans are in the market for a new signal-caller as well.
Daniel Jeremiah made a small note on Levis potentially being the QB2, which tells me he may be starting to buy into this theory.
3 - Cardinals - Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
Arizona’s situation has become a bit more complicated than it was in my last mock. Monti Ossenfort, a Patriots disciple, almost certainly wants to move down from this spot. But with Stroud’s value not as high as we once thought, is someone still going to be willing to pay the premium to move in front of Indy?
According to the Rich Hill trade chart, the Cardinals’ pick is worth 514 points. Here are the point values for some teams who may be looking to move up:
Seahawks - 5 - 468 points
Lions - 6 - 446
Raiders - 7 - 426
Titans - 11 - 358
So in terms of raw point values to make up, the largest gap is with Tennessee, who would need to come up with an additional 156 points of value (roughly). This is basically the equivalent of a high second-round pick. If Seattle wanted to swap with Arizona, the 46 point difference could be made up by a mid-to-late Round 3 selection. Based on pure trade value, it still doesn’t seem terribly difficult for a deal to get done.
But in this iteration of the mock, no such deal occurs. So why Tyree Wilson over Will Anderson? This is already a rumor that is percolating around the league. From Peter King’s Football Morning in America:
I will not be surprised if, in the Edge category, Tyree Wilson is picked ahead of Will Anderson. I particularly will not be surprised if Houston—whether at two or through a trade-down if the Texans don’t take a quarterback—takes Wilson over Anderson. “DeMeco Ryans could look at Wilson after his year in San Francisco and say, ‘I got my Nick Bosa,’” said someone in the league who knows Ryans.
And if DeMeco Ryans, who went to Alabama, is willing to take Wilson over Anderson, that would seem to be a gateway to any other team considering it as well. Rob Staton noted there could be schematic reasons to take Wilson over Anderson for Jonathan Gannon’s defense.
Philly’s edge rushers under Jonathan Gannon were not 253lbs like Anderson. They bulked up Josh Sweat to 265lbs. Brandon Graham is 265lbs. I don’t think Anderson can carry another 12lbs comfortably — he’s better suited in that 245-255lbs range. So the 271lbs Wilson to Arizona shouldn’t be totally ruled out
4 - Colts - Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The Colts have seemingly made it clear at this point that they do not intend to move up in this draft. There are four QBs, and that guarantees them one. Chris Ballard loves draft picks, and is not someone to pay a premium in order to move up.
Michael Lombardi went on VSiN and spilled a lot of tea on Indy’s potential draft plans. Staton summarized things nicely:
Lombardi predicts Ballard’s order for the QB’s is Will Levis, C.J. Stroud then Anthony Richardson. He then added it could be Richardson over Stroud. Either way, Levis is #1. Regulars will know I’ve been projecting Levis to the Colts for a long time and see it as an ideal fit. I think this is why Chris Mortensen said Levis won’t get out of the top-five. If you really study the class and the Colts, the #4 pick has felt like the floor for Levis (despite all those mocks two weeks ago having him dropping into the late first). Lombardi mentions that of Levis, Stroud and Richardson — Levis is the only player who can start a game in 2023. That’s the point of the projection.
This makes sense, and we now have multiple reports pointing out that the Colts have interest in Levis. Heck, Peter Schrager mentioned it while I was writing this.
But Levis isn’t available in this scenario where the Texans (wisely) snipe their division rival. So where do they go?
I think — eventually — the Colts will settle on Richardson. Remember, this is Jim Irsay’s team. Do you think he wants to take the (now) damaged goods in Stroud, or the flashy and exciting Richardson? Easy sell. Furthermore, if you believe that the Colts have interest in persuing Lamar Jackson, you have to imagine they would want a young QB back in return. The Ravens had Richardson in for a 30 visit — they did not meet with Stroud. So there is the bonus of some optionality here as well.
5 - Seahawks - Will Anderson Jr., Edge, Alabama
With the way Geno Smith’s contract is structured, I have to think they have interest in bringing in a rookie QB.
But would they draft Stroud? “Difficult to coach” doesn’t feel like something Pete Carroll wants to deal with again, so I would pass on that. However, I do think they would have interest in Richardson, which Staton has said numerous times this cycle.
If they can’t land Richardson, then one of the top two edge rushers is likely available. Anderson is pretty plug and play, and I don’t think requires a ton of explanation as to why Seattle would have interest. They are one of just three teams Anderson has done a 30 visit with (Lions and Texans are the other two).
6 - Lions - Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
If there is a corner in this draft who is willing to bite some kneecaps, it is definitely Witherspoon. He also happens to be a scheme fit.
It is worth noting that Detroit doesn’t need to take a corner here — they signed Emmanuel Moseley and Cameron Sutton already. But Moseley’s deal is for only one year, and the Lions already traded away Jeff Okudah. I think they may prefer one of Anderson or Wilson, but both being top-five selections grows in likelihood by the day. The wildcard here? Jalen Carter.
7 - Raiders - Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
Vegas has two glaring needs (CB, OL) and one high-value position of interest (QB). Stroud, again, is going to be an option here. Lombardi was the one who popped the lid off of the Stroud negativity.
Fun fact about Lombardi: his son Mick is the offensive coordinator for the Raiders. I’m not sure questioning a QB your son may end up coaching passes the smell test.
That leaves offensive line and corner. Christian Gonzalez is intriguing here, but protecting Jimmy G is likely a priority. He has been one of the worst QBs in the NFL under pressure. Here are his PFF pass grade ranks in such situations (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks):
2022 — 27th of 42
2021 — 40/40
2020 — Did not qualify
2019 — 27/41
I have to think few people know Garoppolo better than Josh McDaniels — this will be a problem if it is not resolved. Offensive line is fairly wide open, but Johnson has been billed as the top overall tackle option in this class.
8 - Falcons - Nolan Smith, Edge, Georgia
While many believe the Falcons will Capitulate for Caleb™️, they seem to not have gotten the memo. Atlanta has spent a ton of cash this off-season, and most recently brought in veteran Calais Campbell to shore up their defensive interior. I think they are looking to make a run at the division.
Edge defender is their biggest need currently on defense, though they could go a couple of different directions with this pick. My belief is this is where Bijan Robinson’s range begins. However Cam Marino — who nailed Drake London last year — believes they will go with Smith.
Smith is a high-character player with amazing athleticism. He is precisely the type of feverish riser we should be expecting during this process. Smith made it seem as though Atlanta had some interest after his pro day.
"I'm a hometown kid and it'd just mean a lot to me," Smith said. "It just seems like they see a future in me and that they really want to keep me home."
9 - Bears - Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
Carter has been a relative question mark since his arrest, but the majority opinion is that he will still go inside of the top-10. From Jordan Reid:
Still, speaking to scouts after Georgia's recent pro day -- where Carter struggled -- each mentioned they expect Carter to be a top-10 pick.
Carter did not take a 30 visit with a single team picking outside of the top 10.
There also appears to be at least some interest from the Bears’ side of things.
The Carter-to-Chicago steam has only gotten hotter from there. If he is off the board, I lean tackle. Trading back is also an option.
10 - Eagles - Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
We know Howie loves premium positions, especially in the trenches. They have starters up front on both sides of the ball, but lack depth (especially young depth). After signing Jalen Hurts to a $255 million deal, it makes sense to prioritize protecting him.
Insert Skoronski, who can play any of four positions at a high level tomorrow (and there are some rumors he could even play center). He would likely compete immediately with Cam Jurgens at guard to replace Isaac Seumalo, and then slot in there full-time once Jason Kelce retires (and Jurgens is the center). Scouts were high on Skoronski’s character in Bob McGinn’s writeup of the offensive line.
“I think he’s the safest (pick at the position) because he has the perfect mix of character and talent,” said one scout. “There really are no holes. He has two-position versatility at a starting level and he’s a kick-ass person. He works his butt off. He’s a leader.”
The Eagles don’t own any picks in Rounds 4/5/6, so they will probably look to trade back somewhere and re-fortify their Day 3 selections. This range is so open that they could do that and still land many of their targeted players.
11 - Titans - CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
Tennessee cut a lot of players immediately when Ran Carthon took over as the GM, which smells like a mini-rebuild. It was also reported that they tried to move up for the first pick in the draft.
The Titans had a presence at the QB pro days, and also still have some ties to Ossenfort if they wanted to go to 3. A small swap with any of the teams in the back half of the top 10 could make sense if they decide they really want Stroud.
We know that Ohio State head coach Ryan Day is buddies with Mike Vrabel. He even considered joining Vrabel’s staff back in 2018. So if anyone is going to get the skinny on how to coach Stroud, it’s Vrabel. This seems like a decent backstop for Stroud.
12 - Texans - Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
This may seem like an odd selection given that Houston already has Dameon Pierce, but I think there is some credibility to the idea that the Texans could be in on Bijan.
Nick Caserio was part of a Patriot front office that selected Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley on Day 2 of the same draft. They also took Sony Michel with stable RBs in tow (including 4th-rounder James White), and notably over QB Lamar Jackson. Caserio selected guard Kenyon Green with the 15th pick last year. Positional value does not seem to be something that would dissuade him.
With the Texans likely starting a rookie QB, they may view an investment in Robinson as “protection” for him — especially with a defensive-minded head coach in DeMeco Ryans. There is also something to be said for the fan approval rating likely to come from keeping a local star in-state.
13 - Jets - Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
I had Wright here in my first mock draft, and am going back to it for this one.
Jets certainly need to improve their protection with Aaron Rodgers (potentially) coming in, and the rest of the offense largely settled. Daniel Jeremiah noted that Wright is a “plug and play starter at right tackle” who he thinks will be a top-15 pick on the most recent Move the Sticks pod.
Reading between the lines here, Jeremiah — who has close connections with the Jets — may be looking at New York taking a right tackle and letting them figure it out on the left side between Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton.
Ultimately, this comes down to if the Jets trust a slimmed-down Becton with a major role. I think they will take a tackle or someone along the defensive line.
14 - Patriots - Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Gonzalez slide stops here, and if I had to guess, a team would likely move up to draft him before he actually gets to 14. Gonzalez is a high-end athlete at the position, and the top corner for some analysts (and likely teams).
New England has a need at corner, so this fits nicely. Offensive line, edge rusher, and receiver are some other options.
15 - Packers - Myles Murphy, Edge, Clemson
Last year, we noted the trends of Green Bay’s front office en route to a Quay Walker selection.
I have been promoting the athletic Darnell Washington in this position, but ultimately he seems like more of a trade-back candidate. Instead, they could go with Murphy, who is also a RAS machine.
Murphy does not turn 22 years old until January, fitting the age criteria here as well. The Packers could use another pass rusher with Rashan Gary coming off of a torn ACL.
16 - Commanders - Joey Porter Jr, CB, Penn State
Washington appears ready to hand the keys to Sam Howell (for now), which leaves corner and tackle as their biggest needs. Sam Smith was bullish on the Commanders going defensive back in his appearance on Move the Line.
In his mock, Porter was already gone by this pick, but as the consensus third corner, it could make some sense for Washington to take him if available.
17 - Steelers - Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
Pittsburgh is another team with needs along the offensive line and at corner. The former takes precedence here given the board, but Pittsburgh may have interest in coming up for an impact defender. Again, from King:
Best rumor of the week: Steelers trading up from 17 to nine if Carter’s there. There could not be a more perfect coach for Carter than Mike Tomlin.
Ordinarily, I wouldn’t put too much stock in trade-up rumors, but the Steelers are notorious for tipping their hand regarding draft plans. In fact, it was reported they would move up in 2019.
That year, they traded up for Devin Bush. When it comes to Steeler smoke, there is usually fire. Keep an eye on them on draft night.
18 - Lions - Lukas Van Ness, Edge, Iowa
Detroit strikes gold in this scenario, adding a stud corner with their first selection, and picking up a twitched up, versatile defensive lineman with their second. Van Ness has been a riser throughout the draft process, but given the potential needs of different teams and overall flatness of this class, he has a wide range (I would say 8-19).
If the Lions went pass rusher at six, they could look at corner with this pick. If they aren’t adding a QB, spending their two firsts on defense appear to be the favorite.
19 - Bucs - Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Tampa recently cut starting tackle Donovan Smith, and are still $50M over the cap. This could be a punt season for them where the hope is to acquire one of the top picks in the 2024 draft (and Caleb Williams/Drake Maye). In a mini teardown, it would make sense to find a young player at a premium position.
Josh Norris declared Harrison a LOCK for Day 1 earlier this week (35 min mark).
Imagine fading Norris.
20 - Seahawks - Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
Staton indicated that Seattle could have some interest in Hooker depending on what happens with the fifth pick.
I think they’ll be shaped by what happens between picks #1-4. I’ve thought for weeks that if Will Anderson lasts to #5 they’ll take him. In that situation, it increases the chances of them going in for Hooker — if available — later on. If Anderson is gone, I think they might pivot to a quarterback at #5 and then select a talented defender at #20 and/or #37.
In some ways, Smith is the best possible mentor for Hooker. Both of their collegiate head coaches (Dana Holgerson and Josh Heupel respectively) were Mike Leach disciples, and Smith was similarly criticized for the offense he ran before entering the NFL.
Hooker is a high-character QB who has impressed scouts with his ability to recall the offense he ran at Virginia Tech while also explaining the intricacies of the Tennessee passing game. Daniel Jeremiah recently gave Hooker a greater than 50% chance to make the first round.
21 - Chargers - Jordan Addison, WR, USC
After making a coordinator change after the season, the Chargers absolutely need to upgrade the weaponry to get the most out of Justin Herbert. My head says TE is the best option, but my heart simply cannot get past this story of Addison and Chargers WR coach.
I’m a sucker, I know. In my final mock, this pick may become Dalton Kincaid.
22 - Ravens - Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Ravens probably still have a need at receiver — even after signing Odell Beckham — but it isn’t as strong of one as is corner. Banks is another physical specimen at the position, and Baltimore has to find someone to replace Marcus Peters.
23 - Vikings - Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
After letting go of Adam Thielen, Minnesota could use another weapon. While JSN was primarily a slot player at Ohio State, there is some belief that he was mostly forced there by Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. He has had enough productivity on his outside snaps — and weighs an appropriate 196 pounds — that Minnesota could get fairly creative with how they align him and Justin Jefferson.
24 - Jaguars - O’Cyrus Torrence, OL, Florida
Jaawan Taylor went to the Chiefs, and it appears that Doug Pederson believes Walker Little is capable of playing guard:
Little won't be the Jaguars' only option, though. Pederson raved about Little's versatility during this year's NFL Scouting Combine, noting he thinks he could play either tackle spot and potentially even inside at guard. Thanks to this versatility, the Jaguars could look to this year's draft to find a future replacement for Taylor.
Jacksonville absolutely must prioritize protecting Trevor Lawrence, and this keeps the Jaguars open to drafting the best available tackle or guard. It is the latter in this case, with Torrence stepping in as one of many viable interior options.
25 - Giants - Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
The Giants added Darren Waller and every slot receiver under the sun so far in free-agency, meaning they do not have to address the position in Round 1. Instead, they turn their eyes to corner, where Forbes is perhaps the most intriguing prospect this year at the position. He blazed the 40, and has a 79” wingspan despite being only 6 feet tall — but weight just 166 pounds.
Still, Forbes is another name Norris mentions as a lock for Day 1, and was mentioned by Peter Schrager as someone who will go higher than mocks currently have him.
26 - Cowboys - Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
After trading for Brandin Cooks, Dallas has made it clear they want to surround Dak Prescott with better weapons. With a hole at TE, they could look to add Mayer, who Dane Brugler has connected with the team.
As one plugged-in league source told me about Mayer and the Cowboys: “I just can’t see Dallas passing.”
The Cowboys are looking for a tight end who can hold his own as a blocker but also move the sticks as a receiving threat. If Mayer makes it this far, it’s a good bet he will have a star on his helmet.
27 - Bills - Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
The Move the Sticks crew laid out some great dot-connecting on Jack Campbell and the Bills connecting through Luke Kuechly.
Linebacker does fill a need, but ultimately I don’t believe any will warrant a first-round selection.
Instead, Buffalo turns their attention to the defensive line. As Joe Buscaglia points out, the Bills’ top four defensive tackles are all free agents after 2023. Teams typically draft not just for current needs, but future ones. Bresee seems to be a prospect the scouts are higher on than media right now.
28 - Bengals - Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Cincy added Irv Smith on a cheap, one-year deal, but that is far from having long-term assurance at the position. Kincaid is probably the best pure pass-catcher in this TE class, and would give yet another dynamic weapon to Joe Burrow.
29 - Saints - Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
The Saints brought in Foster Moreau during free agency, but found that he had Hodgkin lymphoma. Get better soon, Foster.
This indicates that TE is likely a position the team still views as a need. Washington would be an excellent in-line complement to Juwan Johnson, who played 50% of his snaps in the slot last year for the Saints, and another 15% out wide.
Lance Zierlein indicated that teams like Washington, and that he believes three TEs will go on Day 1 on a recent episode of the Establish the Run podcast.
30 - Eagles - Will McDonald, Edge, Iowa State
The Eagles continue fortifying the trenches here with McDonald, who doesn’t look completely dissimilar to Haason Reddick.
Zierlein exclaimed that McDonald will be gone “way earlier than that” when the Prospect to Pros crew mocked him to the Chiefs at 31 (last 5 min).
31 - Chiefs - Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
I thought about dropping a WR from the mock, but the buzz on Addison and Flowers has been pretty consistent along with JSN. Flowers earned a draft invite, and could go as high as 14 to the Patriots — who worked with Flowers at the Shrine game. He recently worked out with Patrick Mahomes.
Last Four In
Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
O’Cyrus Torrence, OL, Florida
Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
First Four Out
Brian Branch, CB, Alabama
Keion White, Edge, Georgia Tech
John Michael Schmitz, OL, Minnesota
Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern