2024 NFL Mock Draft 2.0
A second, and more detailed, look at the 2024 NFL Draft
A little under a month until the big day. I don’t typically project trades, but this draft seems to be particularly ripe for them — especially with the Vikings having two first-round picks.
1 - Bears - Caleb Williams, QB, USC
There isn’t really much to discuss here. The Bears traded away Justin Fields, paving the road for Caleb to be the Day 1 starter. The draft starts at 2.
2 - Commanders - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
This is a completely new regime in Washington, and with new GM Adam Peters being a former Niner exec, I have my doubts that we will get solid information leaked from the organization. But we have heard *some* things!
Publically, the preference has been for Daniels over UNC QB Drake Maye. The Athletic had a piece where NFL execs clearly favored Daniels, and Todd McShay has heard the same thing.
There have also been a few other reports that lean Jayden from Albert Breer, Ron Rivera, and Adam Schefter:
Additionally, the Commanders traded away Sam Howell, and signed Marcus Mariota to be the backup QB. I suppose you could read this a couple of different ways, but I would definitely comp Mariota’s play style far more to Daniels, and Howell’s far more to Maye. Shipping off a former teammate also feels like something you probably don’t do if you’re drafting Maye. Again, not reading too too much into this, but it adds some more fuel to that fire.
3 - Patriots - Drake Maye, QB, UNC
At this point, I don’t think the Patriots are likely to trade out of this spot. NESN summarized this well:
Daniel Jeremiah admitted in a conference call last month he’d take a quarterback if he had control of the No. 3 pick, and he said on the Senior Bowl broadcast that he’d be “stunned” if the Patriots don’t go in that direction. He reiterated those points Friday.
“New England to me feels stuck,” Jeremiah told Zach Gelb of CBS Sports Radio. “They are taking one. Everything that I’ve heard seems to be they are committed to staying at three. They wanted an $8-$10 million quarterback. They got that in Jacoby Brissett, and they are going to take the guy of the future there at No. 3.”
The full soundbite from Jeremiah and Gelb is worth listening to. Patriots owner Robert Kraft seems to want a QB as well:
"We're gonna be open to whatever can come our way," Kraft said. "In the end, I'll let the team make the decision what they think is best. One way or another, I'd like to see us get a top-rate, young quarterback."
Billionaire owner translation: we better take a QB.
4 - Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Monti Ossenfort really worked the phones last year, trading back from 3 to 12, then back up to 6 to get Paris Johnson. While I’m sure he will be taking and making tons of calls again this year, I have doubts the Cardinals will want to move outside of the top 6 or 7 in this draft. They absolutely need a star WR, and this class has 3 of them projected to be taken in this range. The mechanics here are also different to me when you have a star player already in your lap versus moving around to get someone clearly in a lower tier (nobody was taking Paris Johnson in the top 5).
Harrison has NFL bloodlines, an excellent college career, and is a completely clean prospect. While there is some buzz that Malik Nabers could be the first WR drafted, I’m not really buying the fit with this team.
One last thing that I’m not sure is important, but I will at least note it. Nabers got arrested for having a gun without a permit while at LSU. While the charges were dropped, some teams may care about this.
**Trade**
MIN trades picks 11 and 23 to LAC for pick 5
The Vikings clearly acquired the 23rd pick in the draft to have some extra ammo and move up for a QB. Both the Rich Hill and Jimmy Johnson trade charts have picks 11 and 23 as more valuable than pick 5, but factoring in it would be for a QB and there is likely some competition, it is probably about right. If anything Minny would be adding to the deal.
5 - Vikings - J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
The Vikings have positioned themselves strongly to take a QB in this draft. They have the extra ammo to come up, they have the bridge QB in place, and they have the weapons and coaching in place to help that rookie QB thrive. McCarthy is also a QB who has had success throwing over the middle, a definite Kevin O’Connell staple.
6 - Giants - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
This is another team that desperately needs a WR. They may be interested in one of the QBs as well based on some negative reporting against Daniel Jones, but don’t have the opportunity to take one here.
I am also somewhat skeptical that the Giants’ QB interest is genuine and not just a smokescreen to get a team to trade ahead of them while one of Nabers or Harrison fall. Remember, the public reports in 2022 were that Kayvon Thibodeaux did not have good meetings with the Giants and was not on their radar prior them picking him fifth. This team has been pretty buttoned up on draft stuff.
Thibodeaux and Deonte Banks were both plus-athletes, indicating that Joe Schoen may have a type. We won’t get any testing data for Harrison, but both Nabers and Rome Odunze are excellent athletes. Either would be a fit, but I lean Nabers.
7 - Titans - Olu Fashanu, OL, Penn State
This may look like a reach to media — ND’s Joe Alt has been the favorite to go to TEN — but Lance Zierlein indicated the league may not be as high on Alt as folks think.
Albert Breer mentioned in one of his mailbags that both Fashanu and Alt likely go top 10:
I had a couple teams tell me right around last year’s draft that if Fashanu had declared then (and he was eligible), rather than return to school for a fourth year, he may have been taken ahead of Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr., who went No. 7 to the Arizona Cardinals. As it was, an uneven final season in Happy Valley—and a rough go of it against Johnson’s old Buckeye teammates, in particular—opened the door for Notre Dame’s Joe Alt to pass Fashanu.
Now, Fashanu is very young for a four-year player. He played his first college season at 17 years old and won’t turn 22 until December. Athletically, he basically profiles as someone who was built in a lab to play left tackle. But Alt does too, and he had better tape this year, and actually is two years younger than Fashanu.
In the end, I’d say both go top 10 and have a good shot at long NFL careers.
So why Fashanu over Alt? For starters, we expect the Callahan’s to be a wide zone scheme in Tennessee. Alt zone blocked on just 37% of his collegiate snaps versus 55% for Fashanu. Alt is also so tall that it impacts his bend (I may be reading into this too much, but hey we’re building a narrative here), which may be an issue in that system.
This interest from the Callahan side could mesh well with what Ran Carthon likes. Fashanu’s top comp on Mockdraftable is Jaelyn Duncan, who Carthon selected last year to play tackle.
**Trade**
NYJ trades picks 10, 111, 185 to ATL for pick 8
There is one stud WR left on the board, and he will almost certainly go to the Bears if he falls to them at 9. Joe Douglas steals a move from his mentor Howie Roseman to get in front of Chicago.
8 - Jets - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Jets have made a bunch of moves already to shore up their offensive line, signing Tyron Smith and John Simpson, and trading for Morgan Moses.
Dane Brugler mentioned on a recent episode of The Athletic Football Show that the Jets were content with their depth along the OL — with Carter Warren and Max Mitchell able to step in at tackle.
If New York feels their offensive line is squared away, they really don’t have a ton of holes left. One big one, in my opinion, is WR. Yes, the team signed Mike Williams, but it is an incentive-laden one-year deal for a player coming off of an ACL tear (and has been hurt plenty of times in his career). Currently, their WR3 is “Xavier Gipson”. Odunze would add star power and much-needed depth to this unit. I think the impact would be far greater than whatever they would get from replacing Jeremy Ruckert with Brock Bowers.
We have at least one hint that the Jets may be interested in some kind of upward move. Jeremiah — who is notably close with Douglas — had them trading up for Harrison in his latest mock. With jobs on the line in New York, going up and getting someone who can help them win now seems prudent.
9 - Bears - Joe Alt, OL, Notre Dame
Though Chicago only has four picks left in this draft, they are all in the top 122. After focusing on pick acquisition earlier in his tenure, the time is now for Ryan Poles to keep stacking blue chippers. They certainly don’t seem interested in trading down.
While the Bears have a need at edge-rusher, drafting Caleb could have them focusing more on offense. Braxton Jones was the 34th-rated OT in 2023 (minimum 500 snaps) on PFF after being 19th as a rookie. It is certainly an upgradable position, and would make the rest of the line better if he could kick inside to guard and/or provide valuable depth.
Bookending 2023 first-round pick Darnell Wright with Alt would give Caleb an excellent chance to start fast in Chicago.
10 - Falcons - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
This is where things get fun. Deep in the weeds of Falcons Twitter lies who I will call Clemson Jeff. He has tweeted tons of stuff about Atlanta that he claims to be from a source. While it is easy to be dubious of such things, he has been pretty nails on Falcons stuff. These are my favorite parts of researching the draft — finding guys like Clemson Jeff. I am buying.
There are a few pieces of intel here worth reviewing:
Atlanta’s top EDGE is Laitu Latu, not Dallas Turner
The corners that interest them are Mitchell, Terrion Arnold, and Kool-Aid McKinistry
The Falcons have talked trade back with the Jets, Vikings, Broncos, and Raiders
Atlanta plans to take an EDGE and a CB with their first two picks
When looking at Atlanta’s trade-back calls, the Jets are the only team (presumably) that wouldn’t be coming up for a QB. This substantiates at least somewhat that they’d be interested in coming up for a WR.
Clemson Jeff believes it will be EDGE in Round 1 followed by corner in Round 2. Based on the board of players they like, I’m fudging this a little bit. Given Latu’s medical history, I’m not sure he could be a top 10 pick (maybe not even a top 20 pick). So instead, they take the top corner in the draft in Mitchell.
11 - Chargers - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
With the Chargers openly proclaiming they'd like to run the football — and the backgrounds of both Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman — many are projecting them to take an offensive lineman. I’m not quite sure that passes the smell test for me.
For starters, the Niners did not really draft line help when this pairing was coaching the team, spending just one top-100 pick up front (and it was literally pick 100). Granted, that line already had a good bit of talent, but you can make the argument the same is true for the Chargers. The left side of their line features two first-round picks. Bradley Bozeman was Roman’s starting center in Baltimore. Trey Pipkins is a former top-100 pick on his second contract. You could argue Jamaree Salyer needs to be upgraded on, but is that worth the 11th pick? Harbaugh can just take his former Michigan player Zak Zinter on Day 2.
The Chargers also need WR help, but Harbaugh/Roman teams have really not cared much about the position. Those Niner teams inherited Michael Crabtree, spent the 30th pick on A.J. Jenkins, and signed a 33 year-old Anquan Boldin.
Harbaugh was at Michigan from 2015 to 2023. In that time, they had just TWO top-15 WR recruits. They were both in 2017: Donovan Peoples-Jones (2nd) and Oliver Martin (7th). That’s it!
Meanwhile, Harbaugh recruited TEs fairly heavily at Michigan, with five top-15 recruits. He had Vernon Davis in San Fran, and Roman had Mark Andrews in Baltimore. This is a position that matters in this offense, and Bowers can also fill a pass-catching need without adding to WR. This WR class is deep enough that they can add someone later to complement Josh Palmer and 2023 first-rounder Quentin Johnston.
**Trade**
PHI trades picks 22 and 53 to DEN for picks 12 and 147
Howie has traded up in the last three drafts, and four of the last five. Denver doesn’t have a second-round pick, which would be a far more palatable place to take Bo Nix than 12 overall . This team has far too many needs to reach that much for a QB.
12 - Eagles - Tali Fuaga, OL, Oregon State
Many would expect this to be a corner given the need their, but Philly hasn’t taken a Day 1 CB since 2002 (Lito Sheppard), and Terrion Arnold isn’t a smash fit as a Vic Fangio corner (I really like Cam Hart for them on Day 2). But this team is always looking to invest up front, and the Raiders and Saints are both threats to take OL, so up comes Howie.
Current projected starter at RG Tyler Steen only played major snaps in one game last year, and it was not pretty. Small sample, but certainly an upgradable position. Fuaga would be a Day 1 starter at RG and the eventual Lane Johnson replacement plan. We may have an idea who revered OL coach Jeff Stoutland likes in this class.
13 - Raiders - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Corner is a major need for this team, with Antonio Pierce calling it a “priority” to find a CB1. Pierce went and saw Arnold personally at the Alabama pro day.
Arnold may also be a scheme fit. The Raiders played more zone than league average last year, and Arnold played the seventh-most zone coverage snaps in this class. He had an 81.9 coverage grade in such situations.
14 - Saints - Amarius Mims, OL, Georgia
The Saints already needed help on the o-line, and then they got the Ryan Ramczyk news. Mims is a monster of a human with a tremendous ceiling. Mickey Loomis has consistently focused on high-RAS players in Round 1. Mims’ RAS is 9.57.
15 - Colts - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
It is possible that Indy prefers a corner in this spot, but the top two players at that position are already off the board. Chris Ballard is the RAS king, with an average of 9.12 in the first three rounds, and 9.67 on Day 1. Thomas is a marvelous athlete, rocking a 9.82 RAS, and would bring a much-needed speed element to the outside of this passing game.
16 - Seahawks - Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
Seattle is another team that will look to add to their offensive line. Fautanu is a legit 5-position player up front, and we know that he’s a system fit since he just played for Ryan Grubb at Washington.
17 - Jaguars - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Trent Baalke has drafted edge rushers early and often in his career, with seven top-100 picks spent at the position in nine seasons as a GM. Selecting Turner would obviously improve the Jacksonville defense, but would also give them some flexibility if they cannot reach a long-term extension with Josh Allen.
The top tier of EDGE this year doesn’t have the requisite arm length to be drafted by Baalke with the exception of Turner. If he were off the board here, I would lean towards corner.
18 - Bengals - JC Latham, OL, Alabama
Cincy ball-knower Joe Goodberry think it is, uh, very likely the Bengals go OL on Day 1:
This was before the Trent Brown signing, but Goodberry noted after that he still thinks they go OL.
Latham has a good chance to be around in this range after deciding not to test at the Alabama pro day. He is a long-term right tackle with guard flexibility.
19 - Rams - Byron Murphy, DL, Texas
We have very little history on GM Les Snead given that the last Rams first-round pick was Jared Goff in 2016. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them trying to move up higher given that they are firmly on team #EffDemPicks. With that said, Murphy is boring but obvious fit in the wake of the Aaron Donald retirment.
20 - Steelers - Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon
Mike Tomlin addressed Pittsburgh’s needs at the owners meetings in Orlando.
Given how successful Pittsburgh has been drafting WRs on Day 2 — and the depth of this class — interior offensive line seems like the way to go on Day 1. JPJ is definitely a plug-and-play center that this team could sorely use.
21 - Dolphins - Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona
Miami lost Robert Hunt in free agency to Carolina, and protecting Tua has to be priority number one. The Athletic’s Nate Tice mentioned that he likes Morgan for the “Shanahan-style” teams in a recent episode of The Athletic Football Show.
22 - Broncos - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
The Broncos have a lot of needs, including pass-rusher given that they were in the bottom half of the league in sacks last season. Now that they have added a second-round pick, they can take a BPA approach with this selection.
23 - Chargers - Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
You know what Jim Harbaugh teams do? Play defense. They are struggling all over in that department, even being able to bring back Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa on restructured deals. DeJean is a Day 1 starter at corner, and also adds some safety versatility.
24 - Cowboys - Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
In that same podcast with Brugler I referenced earlier for the Jets, he mentioned that Dallas has a starting offensive line they could run with right now if needed, and they may be comfortable with it. The biggest trend for the Cowboys has to do with their visits. They almost always take someone they have met with privately for a 30-visit (or their “Dallas Day”) in the first round. They have already met privately with Cooper after also doing so at the Combine. It is reasonable to think there is interest here.
25 - Packers - Tyler Guyton, OL, Oklahoma
This is a team that typically targets high-RAS players, and Guyton’s is 9.71. Green Bay does not have a ton of needs, but this is by far the biggest one after losing Jon Runyan and Yosh Nijman in free agency, while releasing David Bakhtiari
26 - Bucs - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Jason Licht has also targeted high-RAS players in the first round, with a 9.5 average RAS from his last seven first-round picks, and a low of just 9.26. This team wants athletes. Robinson has a 9.72 RAS, and fills probably Tampa’s biggest need after losing Shaq Barrett to Miami.
27 - Cardinals - Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Clevta is someone I consider to be pretty plugged in with Arizona, and he believes they are targeting offensive line help with their second pick.
This matches up perfectly with the Athletic Football Show saying the Cards have a “desperate” need at guard.
Barton may not make it this far down the board, but would be a great fit.
28 - Bills - Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Buffalo let Gabriel Davis walk, leaving them without a startable outside WR other than Stefon Diggs on the roster. Mitchell is an insane athlete who can be their full-time X.
29 - Lions - Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
McKinstry will have surgery on his injured foot, but first decided to participate in the Alabama pro day. He tested remarkably well for someone who is hurt.
Participating while injured likely scored McKinstry some points with NFL teams, especially the dog-loving duo of Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes.
30 - Ravens - Kingsley Suamataia, OL, BYU
For a title-contending team, this offensive line has kind of fallen apart. They lost John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler in free agency, and traded away Morgan Moses. Suamataia would add some much-needed talent for Lamar Jackson’s protection.
**Trade**
ATL trades picks 43 and 79 to SF for 31 and 211
The Niners have 10 picks in this draft, but only three in the top 100. With none of the top linemen falling to them, they decide to move back and add a pick.
31 - Falcons - Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Atlanta moves back up into the first to grab their edge-rusher of choice. After retiring briefly from football for medical reasons, Latu is someone I expect to be available in the latter stages of Round 1.
32 - Chiefs - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The KC cornerback room could use a little talent injection after trading away L’Jarius Sneed.
This is an excellent breakdown, love it.