1 - Titans - Cam Ward, QB, Miami
As Pro Day szn draws to a close, the Titans have canceled private workouts with both Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. The writing is on the wall here that Tennessee will stick and pick Ward.
2 - Browns - Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
I still think Cleveland will address the QB position in this draft, but it doesn’t feel like Sanders is a legit candidate to go inside the top five anymore. The Browns could certainly take Abdul Carter, but I’m not sure more defense helps them as much as some pundits think.
After having dinner with Jimmy Haslem and the Browns, Deion Sanders had this to say at the Colorado pro day.
We don’t necessarily have to take Deion’s word for it either. Andrew Berry has gushed about Hunter before (he knows ball).
Hunter would major in offense for Cleveland, which I think would be the correct long-term decision.
3 - Giants - Abdul Carter, Edge, Penn State
Competency test for the Giants here. There are two blue-chip players in this draft, and one is guaranteed to be there at three with Ward going first. With two veteran QBs already in tow, it is looking like they will make the right choice.
4 - Patriots - Will Campbell, OL, LSU
Much like for all teams with young QBs, this draft has to be about maximizing Drake Maye. That requires better protection, specifically at left tackle. There is some familiarity here with Campbell in the Patriots building.
I don’t think short arms will deter Vrabel from making this pick. He was part of a Titans organization that drafted Peter Skoronski in 2023. Furthermore, he is still an extremely high-RAS player.
5 - Jaguars - Mason Graham, DL, Michigan
New GM James Gladstone understands the importance and value of a strong defensive line with his Rams background. They have needs on the offensive line as well, but signed Patrick Mekari, Robert Hainsey, and Ezra Cleveland to strengthen it. Graham would give Jacksonville the disruptive interior presence they currently lack.
6 - Raiders - Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
This class is undeniably deep at RB, but Tom Brady and the Raiders must restore competency within league circles after being a joke for most of the lives of anyone reading this. That means winning some games. It’s why you bring in 73-year-old Pete Carroll as the head coach and trade for 34-year-old Geno Smith. They currently have Raheem Mostert or Sincere McCormick as their top RB right now despite a regime that will undeniably try to pound the rock.
Oh, and John Spytek’s son has issued an ultimatum on this pick.
7 - Jets - Armand Membou, OL, Missouri
The defining characteristic of the Lions in the Dan Campbell era has undoubtedly been the offensive line. We’ve already seen Ben Johnson try to mimic that in Chicago, and while New Yorks’ OL is further along than what Johnson inherited, there is still room to improve at right tackle. Membou is not as refined as Penei Sewell was when Detroit drafted him seventh overall in 2021, but may be the better pure athlete.
Membou is a big people-mover and would be a statement pick for a team that — with three great RBs and a running QB — will look to grind teams out in the run game.
8 - Panthers - Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia
There has been a lot of smoke around Carolina addressing the defensive side of the football in this draft.
For what its worth, the feeling is mutual between Walker and the Panthers.
The other name we’ve heard attached to Carolina is Mykel Williams, but Walker is rated higher by consensus.
9 - Saints - Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
Nick Underhill asked Kellen Moore about how to build an offense, and he had an interesting response:
"I think it's really on guys who impact the game. I think skill position guys - sometimes we get stuck with running back, fullback, receiver...maybe only a tight end... You just want impact players."
"If you have two premier tight ends, you're gonna play in twelve personnel... You don't want to pass up on good players just because they can't quite fit what you currently do..."
Warren is a consensus top prospect, and arguably the best pass-catcher in this draft. The Saints just extended Juwan Johnson, but he played just 55% of his snaps in-line last year — 41% in passing situations. He and Warren would make a strong 12-personnel grouping similar to what Moore has worked with in previous stops.
2024 Eagles — 8th in 12-personnel usage
2023 Chargers — 8th in 12-personnel usage
2022 Cowboys — 7th in 12-personnel usage
It is also worth noting that the Saints have very little WR talent on the roster.
10 - Bears - TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State
The goal in Chicago right now is to maximize Caleb Williams. They’ve already made major additions to the offensive line. The final piece is the do-it-all RB. Ben Johnson already sent D’Andre Swift to the doghouse in Detroit, and Roschon Johnson is a fine yet uninspiring back. If Jeanty doesn’t make it here, Henderson and Omarion Hampton are other options, as is Warren.
This will seem like a bit of a reach, but Henderson seems like a strong fit for what Chicago wants to do due to his pass-blocking ability. Maurice Jones-Drew also mentioned that the Bears seem high on Henderson on an episode of 40’s and Free Agents:
The Henderson pick would be reminiscent of when the Lions took Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall with Ben Johnson running the offense. That was also seen as a reach at the time, but was part of another relatively flat draft like we have in 2025.
11 - 49ers - Kelvin Banks, OL, Texas
This year’s edition of random folks on Twitter.
If you don’t want to trust “Lobs All Day”, Lance Zierlein mocked Banks at 11 recently as well. We should generally be considering Banks a top-half of the first round selection, as Hayden Winks pointed out.
12 - Cowboys - Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
Brian Schottenheimer recently talked about his opinions of teambuilding.
Building a team “outside-in” feels counter-intuitive, but it does match Dallas’ biggest needs. They could really use another WR to complement CeeDee Lamb, and Golden’s speed (4.29) would do well to clear out space for him. Both Daniel Jeremiah and Todd McShay have Golden as their top WR, and he has been mocked heavily to the Cowboys.
Golden has not been on a 30-visit yet with Dallas, and I may change this pick if that never happens. The Cowboys traditionally pick players on Day 1 they have had in the building. They did meet with Golden at the Combine.
13 - Dolphins - Walter Nolen, DL, Mississippi
Zierlein had this to say about Miami in his mock draft:
Just one look at the Dolphins' roster makes it obvious that the defensive line is a must-draft position for them, one they should hit more than once.
He went with Kenneth Grant, but Nolen seems to be a high-value prospect in this class. Jeremiah intimated as much on a recent Move the Sticks.
Jeremiah noted that while he had moved Nolen up to 28 on his board, that he would be “long gone” by then.
14 - Colts - Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
While GM Chris Ballard typically favors high-RAS players in Round 1, he may still take Loveland, someone we have no testing for, due to positional need. Here is what he had to say about the position.
“We all want a game-changer,” Colts general manager Chris Ballard said. “Every team in the league wants a game-changer. I do like the kids we have, but do we have a game-changer? No.”
“If you can get a guy that the other team has to account for on three downs, that, to me, is something that is (game-changing),” Ballard said. “And they’re hard to find.”
Loveland will be a 21-year-old rookie and is an extremely talented pass-catcher.
15 - Falcons - Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia
He has indicated he doesn’t like being called “Clemson Jeff” and I respect that, but my guy is still worth checking out for the latest Falcon scoops.
Interest in Walker tells me Atlanta finally realizes they need a pass-rusher. If they stand pat, Williams seems like someone who would go in this range.
**TRADE**
The Houston Texans trade picks 25, 79, and 166 to Arizona for pick 16. The Cardinals do not have an obvious need to address, and are always looking to move around the board. These teams already have history from prior deals.
16 - Texans - Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State
A trade up may ultimately be rich for Zabel, but if you are trying to reset the culture of your offensive line as Houston is, he is a terrific piece to add. He has five-position flexibility, totally clean character, and would be an immediate starter. Zabel likely slides into the interior while being a long-term option at tackle given Cam Robinson and Trent Brown are on one-year contracts.
17 - Bengals - Derrick Harmon, DL, Oregon
Just going to steal this right off the Joe Goodberry draft board.
The Bengals almost certainly go defense with this pick after spending most of their cap on the other side of the ball.
18 - Seahawks - Tyler Booker, OL, Alabama
Taking a look at John Schneider’s draft history, he has spent 4/12 first-round picks on the offensive line, and another three on the defensive line. The trenches are clearly a point of emphasis in Seattle.
The interior of the offensive line is a complete mess right now for the Seahawks, and they have to clean that up with Sam Darnold as their quarterback. Booker is not a tremendous athlete, but has crushed in meetings and played against premier talent in the SEC.
19 - Bucs - Mike Green, Edge, Marshall
Tampa Bay loves high-RAS players, and while we won’t have a complete workout from Green, he showcased a 93rd percentile shuttle and 99th percentile three-cone for his position at his pro day.
20 - Broncos - Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
This fits an obvious need for Denver, who should compete again for a playoff spot in 2025. Sean Payton has always loves to run the ball with multiple backs, and neither Jaleel McLaughlin or Audric Estime can do what Hampton does. I think this is likely the UNC star’s floor.
21 - Steelers - Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
I am absolutely disgusted with myself that I’m doing this, but there is a lot of potential smoke on Milroe being the selection here. For starters, Colin Cowherd reported that the Steelers “really like” Milroe.
Milroe was also invited to attend the draft, which feels significant given that the NFL is inviting less players this year in an effort to keep players from waiting into Day 2.
Milroe undoubtedly feels like a reach (he does not make Jeremiah’s top 50 prospects), but makes some sense for Pittsburgh given that:
1) We know they had an interest in keeping Justin Fields
2) The Steelers do NOT have a second-round pick
3) Cleveland has been connected to Milroe (OC Tommy Reese coached Milroe’s best season in 2023) and pick 33rd.
Milroe would be the heir apparent to the QB room with Aaron Rodgers expected to sign a one-year deal for 2025. The Steelers do not want to be without a long-term option at QB, and Milroe possesses a couple of high-end traits (rushing, deep ball) that give him a considerable ceiling.
22 - Chargers - Kenneth Grant, DL, Michigan
The Chargers have no interior defensive-line presence, and Harbaugh/Minter coached Grant at Michigan. This one feels simple.
23 - Packers - Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&M
Green Bay’s first-round picks since 2018:
Jordan Morgan - 9.25 RAS, rookie age 23
Lukas Van Ness - 9.4/22
Quay Walker - 9.63/22
Devonte Wyatt - 9.59/24
Eric Stokes - 9.37/22
Jordan Love - 8.43/21
Rashan Gary - 9.95/21
Darnell Savage - 8.37/22
Jaire Alexander - 9.53/21
The Packers target high-RAS players who are (mostly) young on Day 1. Stewart fits that bill to a T with a 10 RAS and doesn’t turn 22 until November.
**TRADE**
The Browns trade picks 33, 94, and 104 to Minnesota for picks 24 and 139. The Vikings only have four picks in this draft, and would love to move back and acquire more capital. Cleveland sees an opportunity and moves up to draft their next QB.
24 - Browns - Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
The fit here has always made sense, and now the price is right. As I laid out in my first mock, a Kirk Cousins trade would likely cost Cleveland a third-round pick — and potentially the higher of the two that they have. It makes far more sense to me to trade that draft capital in order to secure a cost-controlled starter for five seasons than a short-term, more expensive investment in a declining player. Sanders is the perfect complement to Kenny Pickett in the quarterback room.
25 - Cardinals - Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College
After trading back, the Cardinals add to their pass rush, a position they have had in frequently for 30 visits this cycle. Ezeiruaku is a clean prospect who has been highly productive at the college level.
26 - Rams - Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
The Rams have a need at corner, and Barron may be the best of the bunch. Jeremiah indicated that while he loves Barron, he expects him to be available in the 20’s.
27 - Ravens - Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
I am probably underselling Johnson here, but it is indicative of how wide the ranges are for players in this draft. I did consider the Cardinals sticking at 16 and taking him there. The Ravens would happily scoop him up, as they seem to do every year with value down the board.
**TRADE**
The Giants trade Kayvon Thibodeux and picks 65 and 154 to Detroit for pick 28. The Lions have long been known to need help at edge rusher opposite Aidan Hutchinson, so they swing a deal for his classmate. New York just selected Abdul Carter third overall, so they use the fourth-year player to help secure their QB of the future.
Looking at past trades for players of similar production, age, contract status, and pedigree I found:
Brian Burns — Traded in 2024 for pick 39
Chase Young — Traded in 2023 for pick 100
Montez Sweat — Traded in 2023 for pick 40
Bradley Chubb — Traded in 2022 for pick 29+
Yannick Ngakoue — Traded in 2020 for pick 45+
On average, that is primary pick 50.6 in return. Using that as Thibs’ value in the trade chart nets the above cost for the Giants to move up.
28 - Giants - Jaxson Dart, QB, Mississippi
Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen need to win now, which explains the veterans in the QB room, but they also have no long-term options. Chris Mara, the younger brother of owner John, went to the pro days of both Dart and Sanders during this cycle.
29 - Commanders - Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Tet is nowhere near the top-10 player many in the fantasy community think he is, but this also represents the tail-end of his range on Day 1. The Commanders are led by veterans in the WR room, but could use a long-term go-to player for Jayden Daniels.
30 - Bills - Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
I think Starks could come off the board as early as 15, but is unlikely to slide past Buffalo if he makes it this far. Starks is someone Jeremiah has noted teams are high on, and he should contend to be the top safety off the board.
31 - Chiefs - Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
I know, I know, the Chiefs need offensive line help. But I just can’t see them passing up a Justin Reid replacement with the kind of athleticism Emmanwori has. Josh Simmons has been a popular mock selection here, and is definitely an option.
32 - Eagles - Mason Taylor, TE, LSU
Philly has been rumored to be shopping Dallas Goedert (can’t pay everyone!), and Taylor would be a fine replacement. He has HOF genes, and could sneak into the last of the first round.
Seahawks should trade RB Walker and draft Jeanty.
Ward is overrated. I saw him play in person and he was good but not “can’t miss” good.
How many picks into R2 would you expect Egbuka to last?