5 Breakout WRs for 2022
5 breakout WRs to target for 2022
It has been quite a bit of time since my last post, but things have been a little crazy in Amico-land. Most notably, my wife and I closed on our first house (thanks in large part to many of the items I’ve written about in this newsletter — pretty cool!) and have been grinding like crazy getting packed and moved over. Now that we are winding down on that transition, it is time to get back into full swing for fantasy football. Truly, this is the best time of year.
One of the most important types of players to identify each season is the group of players who can potentially break out — these are the types of players who can win you leagues. While the field is getting better at identifying these athletes, we often find that they still end up being massive values when they hit.
The Player Comp Projections App is a terrific tool to help identify who these players may be, and will be referenced frequently throughout this series. It only seems appropriate to kick this party off at wide receiver.
5. Gabriel Davis, BUF (Underdog ADP 44.1)
Davis is the most expensive player on our list, and one of the more hotly debated WRs in drafts this summer. Part of that polarization is that the fourth-round pick had almost identical production in 2020 as he did in 2021 — when he was being selected well outside of the top-100. It is worth noting that his app outputs are quite strong, suggesting a major improvement is likely coming in performance.
Davis’ most similar comp — Chris Godwin — shows up twice in his top-20, and offers an interesting parallel to consider when forecasting his 2022 performance. You see, both Godwin’s 2017 and 2018 seasons comp well to Davis, with the former being his rookie season. And much like Davis last year, Godwin would have been a popular breakout candidate.
But he posted just 842 yards and seven touchdowns in 2018 — a relative disappointment. Standing his way were veteran WRs such as DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries. When the pair moved on, Godwin had his monster breakout in 2019 to the tune of over 1,300 yards and nine scores.
Comparably, Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley blocked Davis from a bigger role for much of 2021 despite an impressive rookie season. Public clamorings of this being evident of Davis’ lack of talent don’t really hold water when compared to Godwin. Given that the Bills are one of the most pass-aggressive teams in the NFL, Davis has a shot at monster fantasy production with both Sanders and Beasley off the roster.
I understand, of course, that the Godwin comparison is a sample size of one (1), but Davis is also coming off of the single-most impressive playoff performance in NFL history:
It would be easy to look at Davis’ current ADP and assume he is priced at his ceiling, but Buffalo producing two WR1’s really shouldn’t surprise anyone in 2022.