Finding the First 32

Determining who the likely first round candidates are in the 2024 NFL Draft

I plan on releasing my penultimate mock draft next week, but a big part of that process is first trying to get a handle on who will be drafted in the first round regardless of team.

This exercise will (hopefully) accomplish exactly that. I will give a rundown of each position in the draft, and sort prospects into the following categories:

Lock - 99% chance of going Round 1

Probable - 75%

Coinflip - 50%

Maybe - 25%

Dart - 10%

This is not a particularly scientific method — I’m not basing this off of percentage of mock drafts or anything like that. It is simply a general representation of each position based on feel.

At the end, I’ll summarize exactly what the picture looks like with two weeks to go. My hope is this proves useful both for mock drafting and draft betting.

Quarterback

Lock (4): Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy

Maybe (2): Bo Nix, Michael Penix

The draft likely starts with three straight QBs, and potentially four. With the Vikings (11), Broncos (12), and Raiders (13) all in need of a young QB, we should see all four of our locks come off the board in the top half of Round 1.

Nix and Penix seem to mostly be considered Day 2 prospects. Both will be 24 by the time training camp starts, and Penix has had four season-ending injuries in his college career. There is some chance a team trades into the back end of Round 1 for one of these players, but it would break some serious historical trends at the position. Teams rarely draft QBs in Round 1 that are not consensus Day 1 talents. Right now, I would say Penix has a better shot than Nix.

Running Back

There are no RBs in the first-round conversation for this draft.

Wide Receiver

Lock (4): Marvin Harison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr.

Probable (1): Adonai Mitchell

Coinflip (1): Xavier Worthy

Maybe (1): Ladd McConkey

Dart (3): Keon Coleman, Xavier Legette, Troy Franklin

WR is the deepest position in this draft, and it leads to a lot of potential Day 1 candidates. Of course, it also could push some talented players into Day 2, as Albert Breer mentioned. Adam Schefter believes Mitchell goes earlier than people expect, making him the most likely WR5 off the board.

Tight End

Lock (1): Brock Bowers

There isn’t much to discuss here. Bowers is the best TE prospect since Kyle Pitts, and is certainly a Round 1 selection (though exactly where he goes is difficult to pin down). We may not see another TE drafted until Round 3.

Offensive Line

Lock (6): Joe Alt, Olu Fashanu, Tali Fuaga, J.C. Latham, Troy Fautanu, Graham Barton

Probable (4): Amarius Mims, Tyler Guyton, Jordan Morgan, Kingsley Suamataia

Coinflip (1): Jackson Powers-Johnson

Maybe (1): Zach Frazier

Dart (1): Christian Haynes

Expect to hear a lot of these names called on the opening night of the draft. Unlike WR, there is not a ton of depth past the first round along the offensive line, particularly at tackle. Barton also appears to be a lock given his multi-positional ability and testing numbers.

I lean closer to lock for Mims, but there are at least some whispers that he is going to fall after not weighing in at his pro day.

Tackles like Suamataia and Morgan should have a good chance at hearing their names called since there aren’t many viable tackles after them. The centers have some question, but have a chance to be selected as well. I think we probably get 10 OL in Round 1, it is just a matter of who actually gets picked.

Edge Rusher

Lock (3): Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, Laiatu Latu

Probable (1): Chop Robinson

Coinflip (1): Darius Robinson

Dart (1): Marshawn Kneeland

The top three edge rushers in this class all seem interchangeable to a degree, as was discussed on a recent Move the Sticks podcast.

Even with Latu’s medical retirement earlier in his career, he seems pretty locked into Day 1 given his dominance. Chop Robinson is a fantastic athlete, but short arms and not a lot of college production. There is some chance he slides out of the first round, but he probably goes in the back-half.

Darius Robinson has been more on my periphery, but Mel Kiper and Field Yates seemed pretty confident he would go in the first round. It helps his case that he can play both inside and out.

Kneeland is an interesting dart that scouts seem to love. His consensus ranking across the industry has seen a big jump.

Defensive Line

Lock (1): Byron Murphy

Coinflip (1): Jer'Zhan Newton

Dart (2): Braden Fiske, Michael Hall Jr.

Murphy is the only player here I have a ton of confidence in. Jeremiah made it seem like he comes off the board in the middle of Round 1. There is a decent chance we don’t see a second interior defensive lineman, but Newton, Fiske, and Hall have all seen some small amount of buzz.

Linebacker

Coinflip (1): Edgerrin Cooper

Dart (2): Payton Wilson, Junior Colson

Off-ball linebacker has seen a reduction in value over the years, but Jeremiah has Cooper 26th on his top 50. Along with some connections/rumors regarding the Cowboys, he has the best chance to go on Day 1. Wilson is a physical freak with a lot of injuries, while Colson is a Day 1 green dot player.

Defensive Back

Lock (3): Quinyon Mitchell, Terrion Arnold, Cooper DeJean

Probable (2): Kool-Aid McKinstry, Nate Wiggins

Dart (2): T.J. Tampa, Ennis Rakestraw Jr.

The top two corners in this class are pretty clear, and DeJean I think solidified his Day 1 status after an impressive pro day. McKinstry impressed teams at his pro day, and it sounds like he is progressing well from surgery. Wiggins has some questions I think due to his size.

Overall Count

Lock — 22

Probable — 8

Coinflip — 5

Maybe — 4

Dart — 11

If we math it out based on the (very rough) percentages listed, we get 32.6 players — pretty close! This draft has more locks, and less overall candidates than last year. I’m not sure if that is a sign of over-confidence, or simply a tighter draft.