Topshot Update: Buying Szn and a Second Surge

My latest thoughts and musings on NBA Topshot

In my last post, I wrote a bit about the marketplace dip we were experiencing, and how I was looking to re-deploy a bunch of my Dapper funds while prices were low. Things are coming back up now, and in a major way:

Not bad for a Tuesday. Today I’ll talk a little bit about the current state of Topshot, what I’ve been up to since my last post, and where we could be going from here.

Topshot Right Now

I’ll keep this brief. Here’s a bulleted summary report of where were are at right now on Topshot.

The Good

  • The aforementioned sales boom

  • 45,000 pack drop for Cool Cats on Monday with minimal hitches

  • Pub from ESPN, Barstool Sports, and others

  • Narrowing window between unique buyers/sellers and those vying for packs

The Bad

  • Still a large gap in unique buyers/sellers and those vying for packs (the next pack drop will be an interesting litmus test)

  • Marketplace bots (scooping/selling moments through automation)

  • Site performance can still drag heavily during high-usage periods (which is still kind of a good thing that those even exist)

The good is…really good. Improved infrastructure and more users coming on board speaks well to the scalability of the platform. Even with the bad, it is worth noting the positive steps forward that the Topshot/Dapper team is taking:

There are plenty of other bot-users out there, but Pickle has been by far one of the most nefarious, and his removable speaks well of the future and security of the platform. Remember, you can always report someone you suspect of using a bot on the Topshot user form.

Buying Szn

Last time, I mentioned that I was looking to sell off a bunch of my early purchases, and re-invest them into good players/moments/serials. I feel comfortable saying that I did that, while also adding rookies and first moments. I’m not going to list them all out, but here are some of the highlights:

  • RJ Barrett #244 S1 Layup

  • Jayson Tatum #354 S1 Handles

  • Jaylen Brown #242 S1 Handles

  • A glut of S2 rookies (but none of the studs unfortunately)

You can check out the rest of my account here. I’m also learning how to find some potential mis-prices in the market.

Same moment, same scarcity, but radically different prices. From asking around, it seems that the logo art difference is valued by collectors, but probably not to the tune of 4x. This seems to be a pretty clear market inefficiency created by OG collectors owning a good portion of special S1 sets. I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled for more like it going forward.

There had been a lot of chatter in Discord about rookie badges, March advertisement, and a hope to be out of Beta within six months. A lot of this information came from the Office Hours the team at Dapper hold every so often. Own the Moment does a great job of recording notes from these Q&A sessions.

These kinds of notes can be helpful in determining what moments to attack in the marketplace (check out the podcast too!).

I wanted to try and get a piece of as many “good” moments as possible before the next market surge. There are definitely some regrets — especially not buying the top-end rookies — but overall I am comfortable with my position.

What’s Next

The site appears to really be taking off right now, and it still isn’t out of beta. It appears that all of our hopes and dreams could be coming to reality. I do, however, think that a smart approach will involve selling a few pieces off along the way. I’m not positive the Topshot economy can continue to sustain such massive prices, though I am hopeful.

Whatever happens, I’m definitely glad I got into Topshot when I did.