Topshot Update: The 5 Stages of Tilt

We are currently in a bear market on Topshot, let's talk about it!

I’m sorry.

I’ll start there today. As most of you already know, we have been dealing with big-time bear market on Topshot, and your boy has been tilting. Like, a lot. This actually isn’t terribly new for me. Anyone following me for a long period of time knows I am a very public tilter. I’m not proud, but it’s who I am.

For the record, I think I’ve gotten better over the years, but I apologize for subjecting you to my nonsense. I can come off as rude, childish, and ridiculous. But much like grief, tilt tends to come in stages — and I’m sure many of you are experiencing the same things. Let’s go through them, and then we can discuss the current state of Topshot a little more — hopefully with a level head.

We will keep it Topshot-centric today, but the five stages can apply to any tilt scenario. Be informed so that you can help yourself or a friend get through these trying times.

Stage 1: Denial

Before disaster strikes, there are typically signs of what is to come. Here are some events that should have tipped us off that winter was coming:

  • A week of straight euphoria in which everything 10x-ed

  • Will Barton $200 commons

  • Pre-sale packs

  • More sellers than buyers

  • Signups being closed off

  • More and more supply

And you ignored every. Last. One. Things went from “LOL I finally refreshed my Evaluate and didn’t gain 10%” to endless despair in about four weeks. But for the first three you completely denied that anything was wrong.

“It will come back up soon!” you exclaimed, waiting for some random event to trigger another boom. Deny, deny, deny.

Stage 2: Bargaining

After endlessly refreshing your Evaluate, you realize that we are sliding with no end in sight. Then the bargaining begins. You’ll do anything to end the dip:

  • Patch things up with a nemesis

  • Stay off social media at work

  • Moment giveaways — without a like/follow/retweet

  • Prayer

  • Spend time with family

None of it works.

As you know, guilt is often the companion of bargaining. You think about the top, and how you could have sold it all. You may even write a 1,000 word blog post detailing your mistakes. You know this is all your fault.

Stage 3: Anger

Once the bargaining is done, you realize that there is no way for you to control this situation. You know who is in control?

Those scam artists at Dapper Labs.

While you’re crying yourself to sleep every night staring at your MomentRanks account value, Dapper is making money hand over fist. They don’t care about the dip. Heck, the dip is good for them. Just watching all of the marketplace transactions while grinding that sweet, sweet 5% fee.

And if that wasn’t bad enough, they just keep pumping more and more supply into the economy. Pack drops that make millions in an hour, then more millions as people immediately sell. Clearly this is an attack — and it is personal — to your account value. Then someone retweets this into your timeline

“You WANT me to short-term flip, you NEED me to short term flip! Darn you ROHAMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!”

Stage 4: Despair

You finally decide enough is enough. Time to sell and never look back. Sure, you may not maximize long-term profits, but certainly anything is better than this. There’s only one problem.

Nothing will sell.

You undercut prices, but every time you do, someone else is there to undercut you. Cool-downs prevent you from being able to post faster than the market at-large.

You’re desperate. You start going full Coach Klein and undercut yourself — surely this is the ticket.

It is not. Fade to black.

Stage 5: Acceptance

It takes a lot of time, and probably a talk from a trusted friend — okay, probably a few trusted friends — but eventually you realize this is not the way. Nobody is out to get you, and it isn’t your fault either.

Sure, you could have made some better decisions, but you’ll never play it perfect. This is how markets work. Much like gravity, what goes up must come down (until we go to the moon baby, ain’t no gravity there!!).

You decide to hold. Topshot lifted off faster than ever before. Everything is still up — way up — from where it was two months ago. This really hasn’t been a lot of effort for the overall profit potential. And if you’ve realized gains already, you’ve done well. You might still sell at the next rise, but you’re done freaking out about it.

This is acceptance. This is peace.

Where We Stand

All kidding aside, things have clearly been difficult to stomach the last few weeks. Nobody enjoys a bear market — except the haters I suppose. I’m not here to tell you to stay strong or to hold (#NotFinancialAdvice), only to not make an emotional decision you are going to regret later. That is good advice for any kind of market.

Big picture, this is still a highly speculative market that has realized massive gains in a very short window. The site is still struggling to scale to meet demand — even if a lot of the demand is just for packs — but Dapper has done a great job of keeping (mostly) operational during a 100x scale-up that was completely unexpected. And tons more users can withdraw.

A big sell-off was probably required to level out the marketplace, and could ultimately lead to big reward for true collectors committed to the long-term vision if all goes well.

There is also a ton still more to come on Topshot. I know people are sick of hearing it, but it is still in beta. And I think Jack Settleman summed up nicely the kinds of things we could see in the near future.

It is so easy to forget that Topshot is still, truly, in its infancy. We still haven’t even had a Topshot commercial yet.

The upcoming mobile game (release TBD) related to Topshot — Hardcourt — sounds sick.

Not positive I’d ever be a big enough collector to really compete in something like this — similar to how I am in Madden Ultimate Team — but this kind of utility is exactly what could help Topshot develop wide-spread appeal.

I don’t say any of this to incentivize you to buy. I am not buying, and don’t really plan to. Right now I’m comfortable with what I own, and don’t really want to reboot the cycle. Of course, I’ll get in on packs, but that’s probably it. However, if you want some déjà vu…

By the way, we may have hit a local minimum yesterday.

Maybe I’ll peek the marketplace after all — just this once.