1 - Titans - Cam Ward, QB, Miami
-25000 BookMaker, this is done
2 - Browns - Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
-1500 BookMaker, done
3 - Giants - Abdul Carter, Edge, Penn State
-642 BookMaker, more or less done unless you believe they could actually take Shedeur Sanders
4 - Patriots - Will Campbell, OL, LSU
Campbell is -400 for this spot, and -500 to go inside the top 5. Just about every relevant Patriots beat reporter has them taking Campbell. That’s good enough for me.
5 - Jaguars - Mason Graham, DL, Michigan
This is where the draft starts to get interesting. Daniel Jeremiah noted in his pre-draft conference call that this could be a spot for…Ashton Jeanty?
To me I would have said a month ago Ashton Jeanty will be there, and he would be a great option for [the Raiders]. As we come down the homestretch--and maybe I'm reading too much into it, but when I listen to the guys in Jacksonville talk, and you listen to the head coach and the general manager discuss what they're looking for in a player and they talk about a statement pick and the first pick of their new regime there and valuing the things that they're valuing in terms of the character, the competitiveness, all those things, I'm like, golly, that sounds like twoplayers to me. That sounds like Ashton Jeanty, and that sounds like Jalon Walker.
It is difficult to parse if this is Jeremiah knowing something and providing a soft leak, or him just trying to read into what has come out of Jacksonville. I may change my mind next week, but I struggle with the idea of drafting Jeanty when you have Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby in the fold already. I’m going to stick with Graham for now.
6 - Raiders - Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
Literally as I’m writing this, Adam Schefter posted an article about some comments John Spytek made at a pre-draft news conference:
"I mean we just saw Saquon Barkley just change the Eagles in one year," Spytek said during Friday's predraft news conference. "...There's certain ways to build a team, and I don't know where we got to a place where we don't feel like running backs are valued.”
This could obviously just be fluff, but I think there is a real argument to be made for selecting a blue-chip player — and likely the third-ranked player on boards around the league — with the sixth pick. The Raiders need to establish proof of concept in this new regime.
If Jeanty were gone, I would likely slot Armand Membou here.
7 - Jets - Armand Membou, OL, Missouri
I had Membou here in my last mock, and that opinion has not changed.
I think that picks 5-7 likely will be Graham, Jeanty, and Membou in some order, regardless of which team ends up making those selections.
8 - Panthers - Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia
Jeremiah noted in his press conference that Carolina has a lot of needs, and will try to trade out of this pick. Ultimately, i think that will prove to be difficult in a draft that is so flat.
Walker has been consistently linked to this pick, and I’m currently expecting the top of this draft to be fairly chalky.
9 - Saints - Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&M
With the Derek Carr injury coming to light, this has become a popular projected landing spot for Shedeur Sanders or Jaxson Dart. Saints beat Nick Underhill doesn’t see that as the most likely outcome.
If we look at the draft history of Mickey Loomis, nine of his 14 first-round picks have been offensive or defensive linemen. Furthermore, their first-rounders had an average RAS of 9.26. Stewart has a perfect 10 RAS, and would fill a need.
10 - Bears - Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
The theme of Chicago’s off-season has been about one thing: maximizing Caleb Williams. The offensive line has been reinforced greatly on the interior, and there is some thought that they could look to select a Braxton Jones replacement in this draft. That would come in the form of Kelvin Banks.
With Jeanty off the board, I lean TE over the next tier of RBs. Tyler Warren is the prohibitive favorite to be the top player drafted at that position, but Loveland is more similar to Sam LaPorta, who Ben Johnson coached in Detroit. He can line up all over the field and be a pass-catching threat. And while we typically think of grit and a power run game when thinking about the Lions, LaPorta has been a notoriously poor run blocker. I do not think that part of the evaluation would deter Loveland from becoming a Bear.
11 - 49ers - Kelvin Banks, OL, Texas
Banks is a hot name right now, with the potential to be selected as high as sixth overall. I’m not sure he would make it past San Francisco, and positive he wouldn’t go any later than 13.
12 - Cowboys - Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
Dallas is another team Jeremiah mentioned as looking to trade back, citing that they have done a lot of work on the interior offensive linemen. I still keep coming back to WR for this team, and Golden in particular as a lid-lifter that opens up space for CeeDee Lamb. Cowboys beat Bryan Broaddus believes they would take Golden over Tet McMillan.
Golden had a 30 visit with Dallas, which has proven to be important in figuring out who they will draft in a particular year.
13 - Dolphins - Derrick Harmon, DL, Oregon
Listening to Chris Grier’s pre-draft press conference, there were a couple of things that stood out to me:
He mentions needing NFL-ready players
Says he believes his two starting safeties are already in the building
He notes the success they’ve had with late-round players at corner
Believes the holes on the roster currently align with the strengths of the draft
Talks about being right “on the person and the character”
It was notable to me that all of Grier’s first-round picks have been from major programs: the SEC, Miami, USC, Clemson, Penn State. Especially wanting someone who can contribute right away, I would expect that to continue.
Malaki Starks and Will Johnson are players I considered here, but Grier seems at least somewhat comfortable with the secondar players in the building, and I’m not sure a zone corner merits top-15 consideration.
Miami has an absolutely glaring hole along the defensive line, and Harmon would be an instant impact player for them. This note also stood out to me when looking at his prospect profile:
“He plays like a Raven or a Steeler. Off the tape, he reminds me of a young Cam Heyward but bigger.” -- NFC executive
Defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver’s most recent stop? Baltimore.
14 - Colts - Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
Stephen Holder identifies TE, offensive line, and defensive line as targets in the first round. I think this is a sneaky Grey Zabel landing spot given his high RAS and ability to fill multiple spots up front. With that said, if one of the top two TEs make it here, they would be a prohibitive favorite.
I also noticed an interesting quirk in Ballard’s history utilizing Kent Weyrauch’s draft visits tool. The only first-round pick he’s had in for a 30 visit was Anthony Richardson (always happens for QBs). In fact, he’s the only first selection that has been in for a 30 visit during Ballard’s tenure (there were three years the Colts did not have a first-round pick).
As a result, it would be out of character for Ballard to select James Pearce, Josh Simmons, or Shemar Stewart. He hasn’t had either Warren or Loveland in for a 30.
15 - Falcons - Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia
The boys at Flight Path noted that thre realistic options they believe the Falcons are interested in at 15 are Mykel Williams and James Pearce. Williams being here I think makes him a fairly easy selection. If Williams is off the board, I could see this being an attractive trade back spot. Atlanta only has 2 top-100 picks and 3 picks prior to the seventh round. If a team like Cleveland called to come up for Shedeur Sanders, Atlanta could add draft capital and still get someone like Pearce at 33.
**TRADE**
The Browns trade Picks 33 and 179 along with Greg Newsome to Arizona for Pick 16. Cleveland has 10 picks, and is well situated to get ahead of Pittsburgh to draft their QB of choice. Monti Ossenfort knows this class is relatively flat, and would welcome the opportunity to add more picks as well as fill a CB need.
16 - Browns - Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
I’ve gone through the reasons why I think this is a fit, and the addition of Joe Flacco likely takes Kirk Cousins completely off the table.
17 - Bengals - Walter Nolen, DL, Mississippi
Joe Goodberry seems to identify the following players as Bengal targets:
Derrick Harmon
Walter Nolen
Nick Emmanwori
Malaki Starks
Jihaad Campbell (pending medicals)
Mike Green (pending character)
I don’t really know how Cincy will view the concerns on the last couple of guys, and lean defensive tackle over safety in terms of priorities. With Harmon gone, Nolen seems like a solid pick here. It also matches the range Jeremiah provided:
I think he'll more than likely hear his name called in the teens, in the early 20s probably at the latest.
18 - Seahawks - Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State
Taking a look at John Schneider’s draft history, he has spent 4/12 first-round picks on the offensive line, and another three on the defensive line. The trenches are clearly a point of emphasis in Seattle.
The interior of the offensive line is a complete mess right now for the Seahawks, and they have to clean that up with Sam Darnold as their quarterback. Zabel has five position flexibility, and would be an immediate presence on the inside.
19 - Bucs - Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College
Albert Breer indicated on his NFC South Team Needs show that Donovan Ezeiruaku is a name that has come up a lot with the Bucs, who may be taking a step back from their aggressive pursuit of traits at edge-rusher this year. Ezeiruaku’s 8.15 RAS would be by far the lowest in Jason Licht’s tenure as GM since Jameis Winston in 2015. But Jeremiah seemed to have the same opinion:
I think to me adding another edge piece makes a lot of sense. I'll go with Ezeiruaku from Boston College. I think all the production. I think Jason Licht values that. I think he would appreciate that. When you get the center from Duke who comes in and is just--I mean, he's so polished and so smart and so tough. Obviously the talent is there with Graham Barton, but all those intangible things I think were what led to him having such immediate success once he got on the field there. I think with Ezeiruaku, there's a very similar wiring with him. He's a really smart kid. He's someone I think is going to pick up what they're doing defensively really fast and could have an impact.
Tough to argue with what these two guys think as top insiders. Jihaad Campbell will also garner some interest here, and would be closer to what Licht typically looks at athletically.
20 - Broncos - TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State
Sean Payton has been adamant about finding his “Joker” this off-season, and Henderson is exactly that kind of movable chess piece. Payton also was clear about the team’s focus for the upcoming draft.
"There will be focus on the running back position. It's a pretty good draft for running backs," Payton said, via the team's official transcript.
Henderson’s elite pass-protection ability puts him ahead of Hampton for me as a Denver fit.
21 - Steelers - Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
Steelers reporter Gerry Dulac went on the Rich Eisen show on Friday and talked about Pittsburgh’s draft plans. He remarked that defensive tackle and RB would be the two positions they’d look at first, and would only go QB if their preferred options at the other two spots were gone.
He seemed pretty confident that the Steelers would eventually get Aaron Rodgers under center. Jeremiah noted that they will likely have options at both DT and RB in Rounds 1 and 3, and can just follow their board at 21. The Steelers do not have a second-round pick.
22 - Chargers - Kenneth Grant, DL, Michigan
No further questions your honor.
23 - Packers - Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky
Green Bay’s first-round picks since 2018:
Jordan Morgan - 9.25 RAS, rookie age 23
Lukas Van Ness - 9.4/22
Quay Walker - 9.63/22
Devonte Wyatt - 9.59/24
Eric Stokes - 9.37/22
Jordan Love - 8.43/21
Rashan Gary - 9.95/21
Darnell Savage - 8.37/22
Jaire Alexander - 9.53/21
The Packers target high-RAS players who are (mostly) young on Day 1.
Hairston has a 9.63 RAS and doesn’t turn 22 until August.
24 - Vikings - Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
Minnesota would love to trade back and acquire more picks, but I’m not sure this selection will have as much demand once Sanders is gone and the Steelers have picked. If the Saints or Giants feel particularly compelled to go after Jaxson Dart, this would be the place to move in.
The Vikings are a team with few needs, if any (though Kewsi Adofo-Mensah does not like to talk about things in those terms), and Starks could very well be the best player available at this juncture. He would at worst be a sub package player right away, and then be able to replace Harrison Smith long-term.
25 - Texans - Tyler Booker, OL, Alabama
Houston has been adamant about retooling their offensive line, and Booker is a high-character player who has crushed in meetings with teams.
26 - Rams - Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
It is unclear how far Campbell’s shoulder will force him to slide in this draft, but teams at the bottom are more likely to select him given how good of a player he is. The Rams have a linebacker need, and would be happy to make this selection.
27 - Ravens - Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
Something that has stood out to me this whole process is how much Jeremiah loves Barron — even though he readily admits that he’s probably coming off the board in the 20’s. Having come from that Baltimore organization, they likely feel similarly.
28 - Lions - Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
Detroit has generally targeted high-end athletes in the first round, and Emmanwori has a perfect 10 RAS. He offers great security as Kerby Joseph enters a contract year, and provides them with the ability to be more multiple on defense with he and Brian Branch’s flexibility.
29 - Commanders - Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Tet has a really wide range that starts at 12 and probably runs to 30. It wouldn’t totally shock me if he went outside the first round. His effort and character concerns have been loud over the last few weeks. Washington has no youth at boundary WR to pair long-term with Jayden Daniels.
30 - Bills - Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
Johnson is an awful athlete, and while his ball skills are excellent, he is restricted to being a zone boundary corner. That limits his landing spots and could induce a slide. Buffalo corners played zone on 70% of coverage snaps last season, and they could likely find use for someone like Johnson.
31 - Chiefs - Josh Conerly, OL, Oregon
Protect the money. The Chiefs are trying to piece things together up front this off-season, and need to keep throwing assets at the line. Nate Tice — son of OL guru Mike Tice — said teams have told him to “shut up” about Conerly after he was hyping him up on a podcast. That’s a solid indicator that he will be a first-round candidate.
32 - Eagles - Mason Taylor, TE, LSU
Jeremiah was effusive in his praise of Taylor:
Mason Taylor to me is an emerging player in that everybody is comfortable with him. He's a safe player. He's rock solid. He had a nice week at the Senior Bowl. Obviously everybody knows about his dad and uncle with Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas. The kid has been around football his whole life. He's one of those guys when you are talking to teams, if you got wiped out, who would be your guy? If we get wiped out, we would just take Mason Taylor. He's going to start the next eight, ten years. Just a steady, solid player. I think he goes in the back half of one. At worst, he goes early 2
Philly is shopping Dallas Goedert, and Taylor would be an excellent replacement.
First 5 Out
Mike Green, Edge, Marshall
Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
Jaxson Dart, QB, Mississippi
Trey Amos, CB, Mississippi
Josh Simmons, OL, Ohio State