One of the most important types of players to identify each season are those who can potentially break out — these are the types of players who can win you leagues. While the field is getting better at identifying these athletes, we often find that they still end up being massive values when they hit.
The Player Comp Projections App is a terrific tool to help identify who these players may be, and will be referenced frequently throughout this series.
So far we have covered:
Which means it is time to move on to quarterback. Last year, we hit on Joe Burrow’s ascension to QB1 status in his sophomore season. Likewise, all three breakout candidates this season come from the 2021 rookie class.
3. Zach Wilson, NYJ (Underdog ADP 182.8)
There is no way around it, Wilson’s rookie season was not pretty.
The top of his comps list bears that out as well.
But even with all of this negativity, there are some reasons to be buying on Wilson. For starters, while the comps aren’t that impressive by name, they still mostly produced better the following season — and some by a large amount.
Even if Wilson ends up being a poor real-life QB, it would seem that he can still improve a good deal. His 75th percentile projection under these comps would have made Wilson the QB15 last year.
There is also the matter of Wilson’s rushing production, which increased dramatically after his return from injury in 2021.
For those keeping track at home, that’s 0.37 points per game on the ground pre-injury, and 5.93 post. Huge difference in floor, but also unlocks more ceiling potential than we would expect otherwise. Wilson ran enough at BYU to think that the late-season production is not a fluke — at worst we should expect something in the middle.
The Jets have invested a ton in Wilson and the offense since making him the number two pick in 2021, and continued to push their chips in this off-season. Here is who they have drafted or signed in 2022:
WR Garrett Wilson (10th overall pick)
RB Breece Hall (36th overall pick)
TE Jeremy Ruckert (101st overall pick)
G Laken Tomlinson (3 years/$40M in FA)
TE C.J. Uzomah (3 years/$24M in FA)
TE Tyler Conklin (3 years/$20.25M in FA)
New York has two other first-round picks on the offensive line, and second-rounder Elijah Moore at receiver along with 2021 signee Corey Davis. This entire Jet regime is staking their jobs on an improvement from Wilson in 2022, and you can bet they will work hard to make that happen. Rushing and surrounding talent can create a breakout for the former BYU star on its own.