The End of Football, Money Szn, and Mental Health
I always say that the fall is the busiest time of year for me. School starts back up, I spend a ton of time coaching, and — of course — fantasy football. This past Thursday, one of those came to an end.
Thursday afternoon football doesn’t quite have the same ring to it as Friday Night Lights, but that’s what happens when you are 1-8 — consolation games don’t get the glory. Though we completed our season with just one win, it was certainly one that was special to me.
Wins and losses aside, it’s always just great to be out there working with kids. Brandon Staley said it best when saying “it’s a sacred mantle for someone to call you ‘coach’” — it’s a privilege to be out there.
People always ask me what I’ll do with all my free time after the season is over. The thing is, football ending means basketball is beginning — and the NBA is money szn.
I wrote last year about how beatable NBA props were, and that success continued during the year.
These numbers were independent of the NBA Draft (which was immensely profitable), and included what I think were too many aggressive plays on sides. There was — what felt like — a long stretch early in the year where I would play sides based on player injuries.
While that was a great way to scoop closing line value, it didn’t lead to as many profitable wagers as I wanted. I’m still unsure if that was more variance than poor process, but it’s probably just not my lane anyway. In 2021-22 we stick to props.
What’s great for this season is I get to be a part of an amazing team over at Establish the Run sourcing props for the NBA. We are led, of course, by ETR NBA mavens Drew Dinkmeyer and Mike Gallagher, and there are plenty of others contributing to make this product great.
I think it says a lot about this product that Dink — who is one of the best NBA DFS players on the planet — is sweating the props with us nightly when he doesn’t even live in a legalized state. Another thing I will note is that I think working hard on the props product has made the entire NBA product even better. The projections are constantly being fine-tuned and updated throughout the day as we source and check props. The results speak for themselves.
I know this probably sounds like a shill, but I’m just genuinely proud of the work we have done. If I was shilling, I’d link the subscription page and tell you that our $250 price tag for the season is better than you’ll find at most competing sites — especially given the results.
But I’m not doing that, so it’s fine.
One of the challenges for me during the winter is maintaining a quality mental health routine. Football really normalizes some things for me — exercise, fun, lack of screen-time. While grinding the NBA can be profitable, it’s a lot more stagnant, and can lead to a lack of sleep and a general lack of “feeling good”.
One way to combat this is by not taking bets on games starting after 7 on school nights. I often find it is more difficult to sleep if I have a bet pending when I go to bed. My brain tends to be very active at night, so it is important to remove any possible distractions. The bulk of my action will likely come on weekends.
I also need to figure out some kind of exercise routine. That gets a little tougher for me because I’m still leary of gyms right now, and obviously, it is going to get quite cold eventually. Right now the plan is some form of walk, but I will need to think of something different for the depths of winter.