2024 NFL Mock Draft 3.0

My penultimate look at the 2024 NFL Draft

Just one more week to go until the big day, and there is still plenty up in the air, starting right up top with the second pick in the draft. Before I get into the mock, I just wanted to cover three general thoughts I have on the first round.

Finding the Fits is Tough

Last week I went through my exercise of figuring out who will be drafted on Thursday night, and I noted that we have both more locks and less overall players in contention for this year’s first round. Overall, I think it is far easier this year to have an idea of WHO will go on Day 1, but more difficult figuring out TO WHOM they will go.

This OL class is incredibly deep, and teams are going to have a wide range of preferences on the prospects. We may even see some trades up the board for what media would interpret as the top of a tier, simply because they are that team’s top guy or best fit. This edge-rusher group is not deep, but the top four guys (yes, I’m including Chop Robinson) I think are all reasonably close.

I Think the Corners Get Squeezed

The position group I keep having trouble fitting both high up the board and in the first round in general is corner. There is just so much offensive talent at the top of this class, and the first couple of teams going defense I think would prefer edge or line help to defensive back. Later in the round, we should see a massive run on tackles. I originally started this draft season expecting five corners on Day 1, but now I’m thinking we may only get four.

Teams Will Favor OL to WR

We have had three different top insiders speculate that WRs may have a tough time fitting in on Day 1: Albert Breer, Todd McShay, and Daniel Jeremiah. All of them mention that the primary reason is the depth of the offensive line class versus the WR class. The tackles pretty much dry up in the first round — if you want one you need to get them then. WR is deep, with options late into Day 2 that could come in and start for teams. That dynamic will be reflected in my mock.

With all that in mind, let’s get to the mock! Be sure to check out Mock 2.0 for additional thoughts and information. I will try to repeat as few notes as possible to keep this from being too clunky.

1 - Bears - Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Signed, sealed, delivered. Next.

2 - Commanders - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Daniel Jeremiah made it clear that nobody knows who the Commanders are taking:

But in talking to coaches and executives around the league, they're like overwhelmingly convinced around the league that this is Jayden Daniels, that this is going to be the pick there at No. 2. I like Jayden Daniels a lot. I like all these three quarterbacks. That seems to be the expectation from folks around the league, but again I don't think -- I think anybody that said they know exactly what Washington is doing is lying because I don't think Adam's saying a word.

After what we saw in San Francisco in 2021, it is difficult to disagree. At this point, I am probably 60% Daniels, 30% Drake Maye, and 10% J.J. McCarthy for this pick.

3 - Patriots - Drake Maye, QB, UNC

We know that Bob Kraft wants a QB, so I think the options here are fairly limited if you’re the Patriots. Taking a big offer from Minnesota would come with substantial risk that you miss out on the QB4 (in this case, McCarthy), and even a smaller deal back with the Giants leaves an opening for a team to jump you at 4 or 5. Ultimately, I would expect New England to stick and pick a QB here.

4 - Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

With a week to go, I think there are probably only two scenarios in which we see the Cardinals trade:

1. Drake Maye makes it out of the top three. If that were to happen I think we would see a massive bidding war take place between the Vikings and Giants. Arizona could probably move back, and then up for their receiver of choice while netting an extra first+.

2. The Giants are J.J.-pilled. My strong intuition is that the Vikings are not going to meet the Cardinals’ asking price to come up for McCarthy. Arizona needs a top-flight WR, and is not going to go back to 11 if they can’t get back up. Are they really going to do all of that just to net an extra third-rounder? Feels risky. If the Giants were to be in love with McCarthy, however, that makes far more sense. The Cardinals could slide back to 6, and get one of their top 2 WRs with no additional moves. This somewhat presumes they would have Harrison and their WR2 fairly close.

Ultimately, I see the Cardinals sticking and picking. Jeremiah’s answer to a Denver Broncos question has me thinking we won’t see the Giants trade up for McCarthy.

I think the best play is to try and move down, unless I would say if they -- if we have a situation where if Minnesota makes a move for Drake Maye. Let's say somehow New England, they want to just get the haul and get out of there at 3, and the trade-up from Minnesota ends up being Drake Maye and not J.J. McCarthy, I don't know who the other J.J. McCarthy team is.

Jeremiah leaving the Giants absent here was notable. I think Maye is probably who they covet, and otherwise the team is content to wait and see who falls to them at either QB or WR. Absent a trade, Harrison would be a Cardinal.

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**Trade**

MIN trades picks 11 and 23 to LAC for pick 5

Minnesota is not in an enviable situation. They’ve already declared what they want to do. Kirk Cousins is gone. Justin Jefferson still hasn’t signed. You’ve traded 2025 capital to get an extra first (even though we now know Houston approached them for the deal). There is simply no way you can go back to ownership and say you left Day 1 with a defensive tackle and a corner. They just cannot take the risk the Giants are a legit threat here. Meanwhile, the Chargers have a ton of needs and would love to get out. Scott Smith is hearing a trade here could already be in place.

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5 - Vikings - J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

No doubt here who the selection would be on a trade up.

6 - Giants - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

The Giants have had both Odunze and Malik Nabers in to visit, so if they can’t swing a trade for Maye, I would anticipate one of those two landing in New York. In the last mock I had Nabers, but I could see the Giants being an Odunze team. They already have speed and guys who win inside, but could really use a true X. That’s Odunze.

7 - Titans - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

Joe Alt has been the stone chalk in this spot, but I have legitimate questions as to whether or not Tennessee would actually take a tackle over someone who is clearly a better prospect on consensus. Brian Callahan was in this situation before with the Bengals. Back in 2021, he advocated for Ja’Marr Chase over Penei Sewell.

I landed on the Jamar Chase side because I saw what he could do for our offense.... I tend to lean to the guys that can score touchdowns.

This situation brings a lot of similarities to the table. Whether it is Nabers or Odunze, we would be talking about an elite pass-catcher. While the Titans seem fine at WR right now, DeAndre Hopkins is entering his age-32 season and the final year of his contract. Calvin Ridley will be 30 by the end of this year. Treylon Burks hasn’t been any good and wasn’t drafted by this regime. If you really want to know what you have in Will Levis — and set yourself up to score points — WR ends up looking like a need.

The Titans made a small trade to acquire tackle Leroy Watson from the Browns, which made my antennae go up a little. Watson was a collegiate TE who was acquired by the Browns last season and played in seven games. Cleveland’s offensive line coach at that time was Bill Callahan, now in Tennessee. There is some chance the Titans utilize other means to address the offensive line.

If the Titans decide not to take a WR here, they become a prime trade-down candidate.

8 - Falcons - Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

We stan Clemson Jeff on this Substack, and this is what he had to say recently regarding the Falcons:

I would definitely expect Atlanta to trade back if one of the WRs or QBs lasts to this spot, but that does not happen in this iteration of the mock. I suppose it is possible a team could come up for Alt, I just struggle to determine who that team is at this juncture. Latu it is.

9 - Bears - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

Chicago is another team that would be in line to take a receiver if one falls to them. They may even look to make a small trade up to secure one. If they can’t, I would lean towards and pass-rusher or a trade back. The Bears were exclusively a four-down team in 2023 under Matt Eberflus.

I would anticipate Verse being more attractive to a team employing this kind of front than Turner given how much better he plays the run.

10 - Jets - Joe Alt, OL, Notre Dame

The Jets are positioned to add help either in the pass-catching ranks or up front. One has to think there are some battle scars lingering from last year’s calamity, and that protecting Aaron Rodgers is top priority. While the Jets have fortified their line this off-season, it is through veteran players with injury histories and no long-term commitment. Alt would be an outstanding insurance policy with a long-term future.

Brock Bowers has gotten a lot of recent buzz for this pick, but Todd McShay (who played at Richmond with Jets GM Joe Douglas) poo-pooed that on a recent episode of the Ryen Russillo Show.

Brock is tough man. Like everyone’s talking about the Jets at 10. First of all, the Jets don’t have a second round pick or a fifth round pick. Are they gonna just stay there and take a tight end when they need to get younger at tackle?

11 - Chargers - Byron Murphy, DL, Texas

This franchise was considered a desirable place for coaches because of Justin Herbert, but if you look at the rest of the roster, it is pretty terrible. The Chargers have massive needs all over the defense, and Murphy is a player on the rise per Jeremiah:

One of the things that's been kicked around -- I said this on TV the other day. The name that -- if you asked me who the surprise top ten pick is or somebody we just didn't see coming, to me that's Byron Murphy. He's a defensive tackle from Texas. It's a league that's placed an evermore premium on defensive tackles. I was talking to a general manager this morning, and I said, When you look around the league and we ask, who are the true impact dominant defensive tackles, maybe seven or eight of them. Edge rushers, it goes a lot deeper than that. And when you look at the draft, to me, there's some other interesting names you could go after outside the first round at the edge rusher position. It falls off pretty quick at defensive tackle.

Murphy would be a Day 1 impact player for this team, and they could look to fortify the pass rush, secondary, or offensive line with their second pick.

12 - Broncos - Tali Fuaga, OL, Oregon State

Denver should probably trade back, but that hasn’t really been Sean Payton’s forte. The best player available at this juncture is probably on the line. Quinn Meinerz and Garrett Bolles are both free agents after this year, and Mike McGlinchey is coming off his worst season as a pro.

13 - Raiders - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

I’m sticking with this pick from the previous mock. Pierce wants a top-flight corner, and Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell grade extremely close on the consensus board.

14 - Saints - Olu Fashanu, OL, Penn State

Same position, different player. Fashanu is one of two true left tackles in this early portion of the draft

15 - Colts - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Chris Ballard is not one to be strapped down by positional value. In his time as a GM, he has selected three safeties, two iOL, a RB, an off-ball linebacker, and a TE in the first two days of the draft. And while Bowers has not been able to test, it is worth remembering that Malik Hooker — a safety coming off of multiple surgeries — was Ballard’s first first-round pick despite not testing. Much like Hooker, Bowers is widely considered to be a great athlete despite the lack of measurables.

16 - Seahawks - Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington

Fautanu’s range starts at 10 and probably ends here with his former OC and OL coach.

17 - Jaguars - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

This may seem late for Mitchell, but Walter Football’s Charlie Campbell reported that Mitchell’s stock was falling.

I moved Mitchell lower in my 2024 NFL Mock Draft after speaking with multiple team sources over the past week. While Mitchell is still viewed as a nice prospect, a few sources said the coaches were not as enamored with his college tape than the post-Senior Bowl and post-combine hype train would suggest. The staffs see some very raw elements to Mitchell’s game and feel he is going to need serious development to avoid giving up some plays to pro receivers. Coming from the MAC, that is somewhat understandable. But as a result of various coaches viewing Mitchell as needing development, he may not be the first cornerback taken in the 2024 NFL Draft and could end up going behind Alabama’s Terrion Arnold and/or Clemson’s Nate Wiggins.

Jacksonville has a huge need at this position, and would likely be happy to select Mitchell.

18 - Bengals - JC Latham, OL, Alabama

This is likely the end of Byron Murphy’s range according to Dane Brugler.

I think it’s eight and 18. To me, that’s the range.

Without the top DT available, the Bengals decide to shore up the offensive line.

19 - Rams - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

Peter Schrager — a noted friend of Rams HC Sean McVay — made a strong statement on the team in his first mock.

I'll go on record with something of a guarantee here: If the Rams do not trade back, you better believe Sean McVay's first-ever first-round selection will be an offensive player.

If you look at their WR room, there really isn’t a ton there other than Puka Nacua and a declining Cooper Kupp. Thomas would give them a field-stretcher on the outside, and open things up a little more for Matthew Stafford.

20 - Steelers - Amarius Mims, OL, Georgia

Pittsburgh has done a lot of work on Mims. They met with him at the Combine, had him in for a private workout, and sent Mike Tomlin, among others, to the Georgia Pro Day. Mims would reunite with former teammate Broderick Jones to bookend the line.

21 - Dolphins - Graham Barton, OL, Duke

I could see Barton going even earlier than this. He likely has a lot of fans in the league as a true five-position offensive lineman.

22 - Eagles - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

Howie loves to stockpile offensive linemen and pass rushers. Perhaps he would even move up to select someone like Turner.

23 - Chargers - Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

After his excellent pro day workout, this seems like about the right range for DeJean. The Chargers could also go offensive line here if they so choose.

24 - Cowboys - Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M

Based on their visits, I would think this pick comes down to Barton or Jackson-Powers Johnson to fortify the interior, or Cooper. Dallas has also met with Fautanu and Fuaga, which could mean they have interest in trading up.

25 - Packers - Tyler Guyton, OL, Oklahoma

This is a highly athletic OL class, meaning Green Bay should have some options here. I’m sticking with Guyton, and think this could be his floor.

26 - Bucs - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

Jeremiah had some positive words for Chop:

In talking to teams around the league over the last week, I think it's a lot closer with Chop Robinson with those top three guys than maybe some people expect. So I have Turner at 12 on my list, Verse was 14, Latu was 16, Robinson was 21. There's a lot of people out there that think that Chop Robinson could end up being the second edge rusher to go.

He may not make it to Tampa, but it would be difficult to see him slide any further based on this statement.

27 - Cardinals - Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona

Morgan is the only lineman in this range that has been in for a visit with the Cardinals. The sample size is obviously small, but they did draft Paris Johnson after having him in for a visit last year.

28 - Bills - Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

I don’t think Mitchell goes any later than this. Adam Schefter picked him as a player he expects to go earlier than people think.

29 - Lions - Darius Robinson, DL, Missouri

Robinson is the hottest name going right now in the cycle. He was invited to attend the draft, and McShay called him a Round 1 lock. Schrager intimated he could go top 20.

30 - Ravens - Kingsley Suamataia, OL, BYU

Sticking with this pick from the last mock. Ravens absolutely need to address this O-line.

31 - 49ers - Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon

Campbell had JPJ as someone whose stock is on the rise.

There were reports on ESPN that Powers-Johnson was overhyped and unlikely to go in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, but team sources did not agree with those projections. Multiple sources from playoff teams said Powers-Johnson is in the running to be their pick in the first round, with many thinking he is very likely to go in the 20s. I have Powers-Johson in the top 20 of my 2024 NFL Draft Big Board, and while he may not go that high, a number of sources are hoping he gets to their first-round pick. Powers-Johnson sounds extremely likely to be a first-round selection in the 2024 NFL Draft.

I felt this warranted getting him in the mock, and the Niners should look to strengthen their line during this draft.

32 - Chiefs - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Wiggins is someone I would expect to have a wide range, but he probably belongs in the first round. Kansas City could use another body here after trading L’Jarius Sneed.

First Four Out

• Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

• Johnny Newton, DL, Illinois

• Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

• Zach Frazier, OL, West Virginia